Author: Jim Monaghan
Date: 08:49:13 08/07/02
Hi, I've been playing around with some position testing and engine scoring on epd tests. I've come up with the following table which expresses a person's (or engine's) rating based on time given for thought. Here it is: Time (sec) Rating 1 2181 2 2294 3 2334 4 2377 5 2394 6 2417 7 2434 8 2451 9 2461 10 2464 11 2477 12 2484 13 2491 14 2501 15 2504 20 2514 25 2531 30 2534 40 2547 50 2564 60 2571 90 2581 120 2604 A number of things can perhaps be gleaned from the above. 1) After about 15 seconds there is an appreciable slowing of ascent of the rating number. A kind of diminishing returns sets in around here. 2) For engine matches, this perhaps means that reasonable testing results could be achieved with a time control of around 15 seconds per move (on good hardware) if time is a factor. Time efficiency is usually a factor. Assuming a typical computer game lasts about 60 moves between competent programs, that's about Game in 15 minutes. 2) There is still a significant difference between 2504 (at 15 seconds per move) and 2604 (at 2 minutes per move). 3) One could surmise that a 2604 player, playing eight 2504 opponents simultaneously to avoid the pondering factor would score 50% (baring tiredness). The assumption is that the 2604 would be spending 15 seconds per move on each game, while the opponents would be thinking for 2 minutes per move on average. I apoligize if this kind of thing been presented before. It seems to make sense. A question for the mathematicians here. What is the formula that can be used to express this time/rating relationship? It makes a pretty nice ascending graph. Remember also, that it's the differences between the ratings that are important rather than attaching any significance to the absolute numbers themselves. I derived this data from running Shredder Paderborn through the IQ test. The IQ formula is IQ elo = 1564 + (% score x 12). So in the above table for example, Shredder scored 75.0% at 10 seconds for an IQ elo of 2464. It's IQ elo at 2 minutes was 2604 based on a score of 86.67%. PC used is a Cel 1.3 Ghz. Cheers, Jim
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