Author: Mike S.
Date: 14:28:38 08/08/02
We've seen from that latest GM tournament in Argentinia, that current top software can probably perform ~2600 "anytime" (single CPU, 1 GHz) under difficult circumstances, too: The opponents had been warned by Tiger's spectacular success in 2001... but still the program, Hiarcs 8 this time, was a big danger for them. But the elo performance was ~2580 (only). Hiarcs 8 and Junior 7 aren't that much different in strength against humans IMO, like all the top programs. In addition to SSDF (where Hiarcs is a bit behind), there are rating lists where it is ahead of Junior. So, based on Hiarcs' performance in Argentinia, we can try to add estimations of how much the latest Junior version *could* (not necessarily must be) better than Hiarcs 8, and add another estimation for the faster hardware: 2580 + 20 + 50 = 2650 (just rough estimations of course, but IMO reasonable). Now, I've taken a look into my database to see how Kasparov usually scores against opponents between 2630...2670 elo. I found, that since 1990 he scored 77% with white, and 66% with black against such opposition. Average = 71,5%. 71,5% of 6 = 4,29 Which means, predictions of 4-2 or 4,5-1,5 seem very likely. If Kasparov manages to apply anticomputer methods better than the GMs did against Hiarcs (I don't know if and how good they did that), which is not unlikely that he can do, 5-1 also wouldn't be surprising. My own first guess was 6-0 in case DJ plays on dual pc (only), but that was "from stomach"... After reconsidering, I still think that result is possible though - but not very likely to happen. What was the last "...to zero" result in a comparable match? Must have been long ago. Regards, M.Scheidl
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