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Subject: Re: Kasparov - Deep Junior score predictions?

Author: Peter McKenzie

Date: 15:01:09 08/08/02

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On August 08, 2002 at 15:28:27, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On August 08, 2002 at 00:29:19, Peter McKenzie wrote:
>
>>On August 07, 2002 at 22:57:33, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On August 07, 2002 at 17:59:21, Mig Greengard wrote:
>>>
>>>>Hyatt:
>>>>>
>>>>>I think it will end as close as Kasparov can make it.  He won't want to
>>>>>blast the program because of the IBM debacle in 1997 and because he knows
>>>>>the authors/sponsors.  That will make it interesting, maybe...
>>>>
>>>>So you think he can score at will against a program that made a 50% score in
>>>>Dortmund two years ago?
>>>
>>>A match is a _far_ different proposition than a tournament.  I think he
>>>can draw at will, and probably win at will also.  But I'll bet that as soon
>>
>>Win at will??  You have to be joking right?
>
>No.  I see GM players draw at will against commercial programs all the time.
>So much that many of the "computer" accounts won't play against the specific
>humans that do this.

Do you really mean 'draw at will' or do you mean they can draw some games very
easily?  To me 'draw at will' means you can draw any game you want to.  I really
don't think this is the case, especially when the GM is playing black and the
computer plays 1.e4 :-)  With the white pieces maybe a strong GM can almost draw
at will, but here too it is possible for black to play unbalanced positions (of
course with more risk of losing).

I agree that given the right type of position, a GM can hold the draw easily.
But chess is not so simple that (even) a GM can *always* get the sort of
position he wants!

"Before the endgame the gods have placed the middlegame." Tarrasch.

GMs are not as strong as many people think, under tactical pressure they can
crack just like the rest of us.  Tal proved it, Korchnoi proved it, Fischer
proved it, and computers too have proved it.

Of course Kasparov is *MUCH* stronger than the average GM, so it will be very
interesting.  I hope the match takes place so we can see.

Peter

>
>
>>
>>Draw at will?  I don't think so.  Junior won't take any short draws so Kasparov
>>will have to work for his money.  Junior is always trying stuff and has teeth as
>>sharp as a razor if you slip up, so even Kasparov will have to be on his guard
>>otherwise he will be embarassed.
>
>
>
>No point in arguing since it will be settled publicly before long.  I don't
>think _any_ GM will have trouble drawing against a computer whenever they
>want.
>
>
>
>>
>>I predict a drawn match.
>>
>>Peter
>>
>>>as he scores a point, it will be draw city for many reasons.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> I certainly think he'll win, and could do 4.5 if he
>>>>tries to win every game, but not getting blown out of the water at least once
>>>>will be tough. And comps defend so well that winning won positions isn't
>>>>guaranteed, so maybe 4-2 is more realistic.
>>>>
>>>>Mig



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