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Subject: Re: some thoughts on GK-DJ match prediction

Author: Mike S.

Date: 15:39:43 08/08/02

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On August 08, 2002 at 18:09:16, Uri Blass wrote:

>On August 08, 2002 at 17:28:38, Mike S. wrote:
>>(...)
>>2580 + 20 + 50 = 2650 (just rough estimations of course, but IMO reasonable).

>No
>
>You need to consider the fact that Junior8 is an unknown
>opponent when the opponents in argentina had the option to buy
>Hiarcs8 and plan their win before the game.

But they didn't score their planned wins, except in 1 game (out of 10).

http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=446

>Assume that this add 50 elo.

*Much* too high for not being able to practise against the exact version.
Practising isn't 100% identical to the match situation anyway, so Deep Junior 7
is virtually as good a training opponent than the very latest Junior IMO.

It may be different when all components, soft- & hardware, are unknown. But that
isn't the case here.

>Assume that the fact that Junior8 is a better software
>add another 50 elo.

I believe that - against GMs - it doesn't matter that much *which* of the top
programs it is. They are very narrow to each other in strength currently. Also I
would not expect that the latest Junior is 50 elo better than H8, against
humans.

Among computers, see for example these rating lists:
http://www.pcschach.de/Ranglisten/ranglisten.html

*Style* may be another issue... maybe even more important for that comparison,
than +/- a few computer elos.

Regards,
M.Scheidl



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