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Subject: Re: Kasparov - Deep Junior score predictions?

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 21:58:41 08/08/02

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On August 08, 2002 at 07:09:00, Uri Blass wrote:

>On August 08, 2002 at 06:46:06, Stefan Zipproth wrote:
>
>>Kasparov will lose 2.5 - 3.5
>
>I hope that you are right but I believe that
>it is going to happen only if the Junior team
>have a very big progress relative to Junior7.
>
>I believe that a very big progress is possible.
>
>I am not going to be surprised if
>one of the top programs becomes suddenly
>200 elo better.
>
>The fact that it never happened with the
>top programs does not say it is never
>going to happen.
>
>Uri

Pigs are never going to fly.  You will never be able to make a silk purse
out of a sow's ear.  Two birds in the bush are _never_ better than a single
bird in the hand.

Lots of "nevers"...

In 45 years of computer chess there has never been a +200 gain in one year,
unless you take a rank beginner program and compare it to a more refined
version of the same program.  But not at the top.  Not since the first ACM
event in 1970 for _certain_.  I feel pretty comfortable with "never" based
on a solid 32 years of annual competition to measure improvements, not to
mention another 10 years prior to that with less formal measures...




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