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Subject: Re: some thoughts on GK-DJ match prediction

Author: Chuck

Date: 22:40:39 08/09/02

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On August 08, 2002 at 18:09:16, Uri Blass wrote:

>On August 08, 2002 at 17:28:38, Mike S. wrote:
>
>>We've seen from that latest GM tournament in Argentinia, that current top
>>software can probably perform ~2600 "anytime" (single CPU, 1 GHz) under
>>difficult circumstances, too: The opponents had been warned by Tiger's
>>spectacular success in 2001... but still the program, Hiarcs 8 this time, was a
>>big danger for them. But the elo performance was ~2580 (only).
>>
>>Hiarcs 8 and Junior 7 aren't that much different in strength against humans IMO,
>>like all the top programs. In addition to SSDF (where Hiarcs is a bit behind),
>>there are rating lists where it is ahead of Junior.
>>
>>So, based on Hiarcs' performance in Argentinia, we can try to add estimations of
>>how much the latest Junior version *could* (not necessarily must be) better than
>>Hiarcs 8, and add another estimation for the faster hardware:
>>
>>2580 + 20 + 50 = 2650 (just rough estimations of course, but IMO reasonable).
>
>No
>
>You need to consider the fact that Junior8 is an unknown
>opponent when the opponents in argentina had the option to buy
>Hiarcs8 and plan their win before the game.
>
>Assume that this add 50 elo.
>Assume that the fact that Junior8 is a better software
>add another 50 elo.
>
>Assume that the better hardware add another 50 elo.
>
>We get 2580+150=2730.
>
>Uri

I have to agree with Mike S that 150 points better than Hiarcs 8 is likely
overestimating Deep Junior 8, even on the best hardware. Still, I expect 2700
strength is attainable. But 2700 will only get Junior slaughtered.

Chuck



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