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Subject: Re: How close/accurate will the rating be in a 10 game match?

Author: Peter Fendrich

Date: 09:00:06 08/25/02

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On August 25, 2002 at 07:59:54, Kurt Utzinger wrote:

>Please have a look at
>
>http://ccc.it.ro/search/ccc.php?art_id=217174
>
>Regards
>Kurt

These tables are not accurate at all for the lines covering only few games.
They are based on the normal distribution that is used as an approximate value
for the trinomial distribution. For as few games as 10 or 20 you can't rely on
this. Maybe you could start hope for some accuracy when reaching 30-50 games.
With accuracy I mean here the ability to approximate the Trinomial distribution
with the Normal distribution. Number of games have an impact in the distribution
itself as well but that is covered by the tables.

Peter



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