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Subject: Re: Crude estimate of the value of an amateur book --> 100 ELO

Author: Arturo Ochoa

Date: 18:52:00 08/26/02

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On August 26, 2002 at 21:01:35, Mike Byrne wrote:

><snip>>
>
>>Cr+book verses Ya+book
>>Cr-book verses Ya+book
>>Cr+book verses Cr-book
>>Ya+book verses Ya-book
>>
>
>With Cr+book verses Cr-book - I think the answer is obvious = cr+book will do
>better - but cr+book vs Ya-book or Cr-book vs Ya+book - does the book help there
>?  Intution and experience says yes - but by how much is it 100 points - is it
>more than 100 points - I don't know.
>
>So now that I am interested in this question , I just completed 100 games @ 2 6
>where Yace scored 51% vs Crafty 17.16 SE 49% - both with books.
>
>The second round is 100 games Ya+book vs Cr-book @ 2 6.
>

Hello:

You are using 2 minutes for proving the books.

Games a lightning time doesnt prove anything.

How could I conclude that a program is better than others in 2 minutes.

I am using a medium time control 40 minutes in 40 minutes.

Tell me how can I conlude with such time?

I think that I cannot ship your idea with such time.

Regrettably, as a Book Creator, this kind of test doesnt say me any conclusive
thing.

Good, intuition is not enough. I rely on the Dann Corbit primary result. It is
real and not a lightninh games that it is lottery.

Regards, Arturo

>The third round is 100 games Ya-book vs Cr+book.
>
>The fourth round is 100 games Ya+book vs Ya-book.
>
>The fifth round is 100 games Cr+book vs Cr-book
>==================================================================
>Below are test rounds where we know the expected result is 50% in attempt to
>gauge the randomness of results with book vs without book.  You would think
>without book would be very close to 50%.  With book we might see more
>variability in results - but perhaps not as large as above.
>==================================================================
>The sixth round is 100 games Ya+book vs Ya+book (it should be 50%)
>
>The seventh round is 100 games Cr+book vs Cr+book (it should be 50%)
>
>The sixth round is 100 games Ya-book vs Ya-book (it should be 50%)
>
>The seventh round is 100 games Cr-book vs Cr-book (it should be 50%)
>
>==================================================================
>
>It will take a few days to run.



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