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Subject: Re: Book vs no book

Author: Dieter Buerssner

Date: 12:47:27 09/02/02

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On September 01, 2002 at 19:12:01, Andrew Williams wrote:

>The final score from the point of view of the version with the book was:
>
>	+71 =78 -51
>
>With a final score of Withbook 110 - 90 Nobook.

This may look a bit more significant, than it really is. A Monte Carlo
simulation of 200 game matches between equal opponents (all games independent -
no learning) shows, that in about 10% of such 200 game matches, a result of
110-90 or more extreme can be expected. I used a draw probability of 39% (as in
your match), white win probability of 34% and balck winning probability of 26%.
Some changes in these numbers will give slightly other results.

A score of 220-180 and better in a 400 game match, could be expected in about 2%
of the cases.

Regards,
Dieter



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