Author: Dieter Buerssner
Date: 12:47:27 09/02/02
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On September 01, 2002 at 19:12:01, Andrew Williams wrote: >The final score from the point of view of the version with the book was: > > +71 =78 -51 > >With a final score of Withbook 110 - 90 Nobook. This may look a bit more significant, than it really is. A Monte Carlo simulation of 200 game matches between equal opponents (all games independent - no learning) shows, that in about 10% of such 200 game matches, a result of 110-90 or more extreme can be expected. I used a draw probability of 39% (as in your match), white win probability of 34% and balck winning probability of 26%. Some changes in these numbers will give slightly other results. A score of 220-180 and better in a 400 game match, could be expected in about 2% of the cases. Regards, Dieter
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