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Subject: Re: I can't believe this bashing is being allowed on here: "Bad Math Topic"

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 07:47:32 09/05/02

Go up one level in this thread


On September 05, 2002 at 10:32:09, Uri Blass wrote:

>On September 05, 2002 at 10:05:05, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On September 05, 2002 at 00:25:58, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote:
>>
>>>On September 04, 2002 at 18:38:17, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>My take on the matter (in one paragraph):
>>>>Robert wrote a paper on parallel speedup, showing a 1.7 increase for 2 CPU's (as
>>>>derived from his more general formula).  Vincent was unable to reproduce this
>>>>sort of speedup, and thought the research was faulty.  Robert agreed that the
>>>>test set was limited and you won't always get that sort of speedup, but as an
>>>>average (over a broad set of positions) that's about what he got.  There has
>>>>been some acrimony over whether superlinear speedups are possible.  I think that
>>>>the jury is still out on that one.
>>>>
>>>>At any rate, that's my take on the whole thing.
>>>>
>>>>Vincent always sees things in pure, jet black or gleaming, powder white.  If
>>>>something isn't terrific, then it is pure junk.  While I think his mode of
>>>>interesting is a bit odd, it's one of the things that make Vincent interesting.
>>>
>>>He crossed the line when he used the word "fraud" and "lie"
>>>to describe a scientific paper without any solid proof (he only proved a flaw in
>>>the presentation). Too serious.
>>>
>>>To be honest, I am embarrassed to be reading this thread. One side does not
>>>recognize a flaw (it could be honest and I believe it, happens many times, big
>>>deal) and the other makes pathetic accusations of fraud mixing it up with old
>>>issues (Deep blue etc.). To top it all, ad hominem attacks.
>>>
>>>In this conditions it is impossible to discuss anything.
>>
>>While I understand what you mean, I don't see any major "flaw".  As in the
>>question I posed to vincent, if I ask you to measure the radius, diameter
>>and circumference of a piece of pipe, once you have one, you can derive the
>>others, but there will be a tiny accuracy issue.  Because pi factors into
>>the relationship among the three values, and what value do you use for pi?
>>So even in something so simple as diameter vs circumference, there are a
>>_set_ of possible diameters that will yield the same circumference, to some
>>particular number of decimel places of accuracy.  Yet in reality, only _one_
>>of those diameters can be the _real_ diameter.
>>
>>After showing Martin just how "bad" smp variability can be, that equates to
>>a piece of pipe made out of some _very_ temp-sensitive material, so that the
>>very act of touching it to measure it causes a change in the
>>diameter/circumference.  And that is what I see in SMP results _all_ the time.
>>
>>IE for a given actual time for a 16 processor test, and a computed speedup
>>made by dividing the raw 1-cpu time by the raw 16-cpu time, you can now go back
>>and re-compute the 1-cpu raw time.  And there will be a _set_ of answers to
>>that computation that still produce the same 16-cpu speedup.  Is one of those
>>pre-computed 1-cpu times (which can vary in the low order digits when the
>>value is in the thousands) any better than another?  Is one better because you
>>computed it, and you actually observed it in the game under question?  What if
>>you run it again and you get _another_ one of the computed 1-cpu times, as it
>>is easy to see the one-cpu time vary by a second or so over a long period,
>>due to network traffic, interrupts, and so forth, maybe even a daemon process
>>waking up for a moment to do something?
>>
>>My point?
>>
>>If you take a 16-cpu speedup, and a 16-cpu time, and use that to derive
>>the set of 1-cpu times (measured only in seconds) you will get a set of
>>N times that could produce that same speedup given the observed 16-cpu time
>>and computed 16-cpu speedup.  The inverse is the better way of thinking about
>>this of course, because that 16 cpu time is just a "snapshot" that could vary
>>dynamically, and as the 16-cpu time varies, so would the set of 1-cpu times
>>that would still produce that same speedup.
>>
>>In other words, there is a _lot_ of inaccuracy already.  So the question
>>becomes, "why compute some of the times, why not observe them all?"  That is
>>"the" question here.  And it is one I am not sure I can answer yet.  I have
>>gotten "closer" to the disk failure date.  From info in my files at the office.
>>
>>I bought a Gateway G6/200 (pentium pro 200) when they first came out.  I think
>>Bruce got his a month or so before me.  In early 1996, I had a disk crash,
>>and called gateway for a replacement (this is the part I have docs for as you
>>will see shortly).  They sent one but when it arrived, it was a 68-pin wide
>>scsi drive, while the machine they had sold me 2 months earlier was a 50-pin
>>narrow scsi drive (this machine had 4 4.5 gig scsi drives).  I called them to
>>tell them about the "error" (I couldn't use that drive with my scsi controller)
>>and they responded "we no longer have any narrow scsi stuff, we have migrated
>>to wide scsi."  I responded "great, so I have a machine 2 months old, that
>>cost me $5,000, and you can't get me a replacement drive?  Mark me off the
>>gateway customer list (I used to order 20-30 machines _per year_ for our
>>department labs)."  That got their attention, they sent me three more wide
>>scsi drives and a new controller.  So I have at least homed in on when I lost
>>"the world".  And that suggests that we _had_ to reconstruct the data as best
>>we could, although neither of us can say "yes that was the reason" with 100%
>>reliability.  I mainly remember trying to get Crafty back up to speed.  I was
>>getting ready for the WMCCC event, and was not releasing new versions.  As a
>>result, when the disk went down, I lost everything, and had to back up to the
>>last released version and start over, trying to remember the changes I had
>>made.
>>
>>I don't know when I started back to work on the dts paper, because the panic
>>about the WMCCC and losing things is the thing that I _really_ recall (not
>>to mention class assignments, handouts, etc.)  But it is certainly within
>>reason to think that led to the time computations.  As I have said all along,
>>the node computation was unavoidable from the start...
>>
>>So, as far as I am concerned, there is _nothing_ "false" in the DTS paper.  I
>>computed the speedups in the normal way, using raw data, back in early 1994
>>after the tests were run.  That was the "critical data" presented in the paper.
>>Later, we extrapolated the nodes when they were asked for, and it would seem
>>that we extrapolated the times at the same time.
>>
>>That is about all I can remember, so far.  I don't consider the "node" data to
>>be very interesting at all, and the "time" data is dynamic enough due to the
>>variability in speedup that any value I published, whether it be extrapolated or
>>observerd, could likely _never_ be repeated again.  As a new test run would
>>certainly vary by seconds if not much more (another thread in this discussion
>>shows some wild behavior on kopec 2, and some rock-solid behavior on kopec 3,
>>to illustrate this point.)
>>
>>I don't see it as being a "fraud" at all, but then I'm not Vincent.  I think
>>the concept of "if you can't make yours look better, then make someone else's
>>look worse" is extremely sad, of course.  But he will continue to do that on
>>all fronts.  "crafty's eval is simple".  "fritz knows shit about chess".
>>"tiger is stupid in endgames."  We've all seen those comments over and over.
>>As well as "diep has the most sophisticated eval of any chess program" or
>>"diep is the strongest program in the world at correspondence time controls".
>>
>>What more could anyone say?
>>
>>Will Crafty ever approach CB's DTS speedup?  I doubt it, because I am not
>>willing to give up the recursive search, which would be the first thing to
>>go.  If I had high expectations of running on a 32 cpu machine all the
>>time, then I certainly might consider it.  But I suspect that I will be
>>using a quad for the foreseable future, with maybe an 8-way or 16-way
>>box on rare tournament occasions.  I'm old enough to try to avoid
>>headaches, which you get with non-recursion when you try to read it later.
>>
>
>I do not think that the numbers are important here.
>The numbers may be interesting only when we are sure that searching for one
>processor cannot be improved and it is not the case.
>
>If somebody use a bad algorithm for one processor then it is even possible to
>get super linear improvement.
>
>I suspect that searching for one processor can be improved significantly
>so there is no reason to care if you get 1+0.9(n-1) for n processors or
>1+0.6(n-1) for n processors.
>
>improvement in the evaluation or improvement in the search rules are clearly
>more important.
>
>Uri


Maybe or maybe not.  You are ignoring "compounding".

IE spending a year to get .1 improvement in serial search?  Or
spending a year to get .05 * N improvement in the parallel search
where N is large?

I don't think our serial searches are very bad.  IE I get the best move
first 92% of the time.  I'm not sure how much farther I can go with that
as there will _always_ be flaws that only a deep search exposes, when you
sort moves in some arbitrary way.

I don't say that improvements are not possible.  And perhaps forward-pruning
ideas are one possible way.  But working to make the parallel search traverse
the same tree as the serial search is also going to pay off in a big way...



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