Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 22:10:12 09/06/02
Go up one level in this thread
One point to consider is that 90% correct move choices means certain failure within only a few plies. First ply :9/10 chance that the program makes the best move. Second ply will only be correct IF the first ply was also correct. If the first move chosen was bad, then this is still bad. So we multiply the probabilities since the events are dependent. Hence 9*9/(10*10) = .81 chance 3rd: .729 chance we are OK so far, if the program guesses right 90% of the time 4th: 0.6561 5th: 0.59049 6th: 0.531441 7th: 0.4782969 8th: 0.43046721 9th: 0.387420489 10th: 0.3486784401 ... by now the chance is about 1/3 that we have not made a blunder with an engine that guesses right 90% of the time. By move 20 the odds are 0.12157665459056928801 and by move 30 we are down to 4% chance. So it is clear that a program that almost always guesses right is almost certain to fail very early in the game! In short, I think both you and Uri are correct, but are saying different things.
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