Author: martin fierz
Date: 16:59:39 09/09/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 09, 2002 at 18:42:28, Thorsten Czub wrote: >Only DOS :-))) >No tablebases for rebel. only 60 MB hash. >windows version hopefully released... when ed is ready :-))) x2cou_51, x2cou_56? how many versions have you tested, thorsten? i ask because i wonder if you are wasting your time with the following approach: if you produce 50 versions of rebel (let's imagine they are all same strong) and then play a short (e.g. 10 games) match against fritz with each of the 50 versions - what happens? thanks to statistical fluctuations *alone*, some versions of rebel will win, some will lose. you will think you produce a great new playing style, when all you do is chase random numbers... how many games do you play with every style? i don't want to stop you from trying to improve rebel - just to make sure you do it right :-) let me give you an example: when i change something at my checkers engine, i play matches of 288 games against a control program for comparison. i have often seen the first 20 games be like +4 for one engine, but finally it loses the match... aloha martin PS: this "try lots of ideas and one will be good" strategy is something you can actually make money with on the stock market: an arbitrary example: use an M-N-strategy to make money at the stock market: at the end of every year, buy stock of companies which are between rank M and N in performance over the last year, eg M=4, N=10. the idea is to not buy companies with the best performance because they probably won't be able to repeat their performance, according to some stock market gurus. now, take 50 such strategies with different M and N numbers and look backward which would have performed best over the last 10 years. you are virtually *guaranteed* to find one which outperforms the market. now, the important money-making step: DO NOT USE THIS STRATEGY YOURSELF. it won't work, because it's just a random fluctuation thing. one of these strategies had to be best. instead, sell books on how to make money at the stock market, quoting this strategy and saying "over the last 10 years, you would have outperformed the market by 5%". this seems to work well :-)
This page took 0.03 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.