Author: Uri Blass
Date: 22:45:23 09/09/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 09, 2002 at 19:59:39, martin fierz wrote: >On September 09, 2002 at 18:42:28, Thorsten Czub wrote: > >>Only DOS :-))) >>No tablebases for rebel. only 60 MB hash. >>windows version hopefully released... when ed is ready :-))) > >x2cou_51, x2cou_56? how many versions have you tested, thorsten? > >i ask because i wonder if you are wasting your time with the following approach: >if you produce 50 versions of rebel (let's imagine they are all same strong) and >then play a short (e.g. 10 games) match against fritz with each of the 50 >versions - what happens? thanks to statistical fluctuations *alone*, some >versions of rebel will win, some will lose. you will think you produce a great >new playing style, when all you do is chase random numbers... how many games do >you play with every style? i don't want to stop you from trying to improve rebel >- just to make sure you do it right :-) Note that thorsten also watch the games. Seeing the games give more information than seeing only the results. Thorsten explained this point in the past. I believe that even with watching the games a lot of games are needed but less games relative to the case that you do not watch the games. You can learn from watching the games what are the numbers that should be changed and to what direction. You can learn from analyzing the games and trying to do a minimal change in the evaluation to fix the error. I guess that there are cases when thorsten rejects a style inspite of having slightly better results but only thorsten can tell if my guess is correct. >let me give you an example: when i change something at my checkers engine, i >play matches of 288 games against a control program for comparison. i have often >seen the first 20 games be like +4 for one engine, but finally it loses the >match... For me it is dependent on the change. There are changes in the evaluation that I do based on watching a lot of games and analyzing them without tests and testing by games is done only after thinking that I do a significant improvement. In these days I do not work on movei(I guess that I will continue in october to work on it) but I clearly learn what should be changed from watching and analyzing a lot of games. Uri > >aloha > martin > >PS: this "try lots of ideas and one will be good" strategy is something you can >actually make money with on the stock market: an arbitrary example: use an >M-N-strategy to make money at the stock market: at the end of every year, buy >stock of companies which are between rank M and N in performance over the last >year, eg M=4, N=10. the idea is to not buy companies with the best performance >because they probably won't be able to repeat their performance, according to >some stock market gurus. now, take 50 such strategies with different M and N >numbers and look backward which would have performed best over the last 10 >years. you are virtually *guaranteed* to find one which outperforms the market. >now, the important money-making step: DO NOT USE THIS STRATEGY YOURSELF. it >won't work, because it's just a random fluctuation thing. one of these >strategies had to be best. instead, sell books on how to make money at the stock >market, quoting this strategy and saying "over the last 10 years, you would have >outperformed the market by 5%". this seems to work well :-)
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