Author: Joachim Rang
Date: 11:35:29 09/25/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 25, 2002 at 12:38:06, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >Please take a look at my revolutionary solution of this confusing problem: > >http://hometown.aol.de/rolftueschen/monty.html > > >At first I went into the net and collected all sort of data for my page. I >wanted to show how important methods and methodology are for science and also >statistics. In special the exact defining of the terms. > >Then suddenly I had the inspiration and in a few minutes whitewashed a million >people who as pupils, students or even professors let them be proved wrong by >Marilyn vos Savant who has an IQ of 228. For decades now the Monty Hall Problem >is taken as example for conditioned probability, which is wrong! > >Hope you enjoy my revelations. Please tell me if you want to comment. > >Rolf Tueschen hm, I didn't read all your stuff (its simple too much), but if I understand you correctly, you claim, that the probability is 50% in both cases (switch or stick). Right? Than you're wrong ;-) Only a simple note: you wrote: the help of the host....(There is no help - Rolf Tueschen) actually there is help. Because the host can not choose to open a door _before_ you made your choice. He has to wait, which door you choose and than to open from the left two doors the wrong one. This condition you may interpret as help from the host.
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