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Subject: Re: Has Christophe's 0.01% chance actually occurred?

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 13:06:54 09/25/02

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On September 25, 2002 at 15:30:39, Roy Eassa wrote:

>On September 25, 2002 at 14:36:38, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On September 25, 2002 at 14:25:33, Roy Eassa wrote:
>>
>>>On September 25, 2002 at 14:10:22, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On September 25, 2002 at 13:27:10, Roy Eassa wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Is Ruffian really a completely new chess engine that is very, very strong?
>>>>>Christophe estimated the chances of this to be 0.01% in an earlier thread.
>>>>>
>>>>>(I'm catching up here after a couple weeks of PC problems, but recent Ruffian
>>>>>messages seem to be relatively positive.)
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>re-read what he wrote.  He said that the chances of a total "unknown" writing
>>>>such a strong engine alone is very small.  That doesn't preclude the program
>>>>being new.  And if it _is_ new, that suggests that another possibility we
>>>>both hinted at might be the case... namely that the author is not as unknown
>>>>as we might think...
>>>
>>>
>>>So the author might be somebody other than that Swedish fellow whose name has
>>>been mentioned here several times?  What is his role, then, I wonder?  And who
>>>might the author really be?  (Are there top-rank computer chess authors in
>>>Sweden?)
>>
>>I think the point that Christophe was making that a person working in obscurity
>>and isolation is not going to make a world-beater chess program.
>>
>>Then the point that Robert Hyatt made was that this person may not have been
>>working in obscurity.  Perhaps he has read the JICCA and/or the hundreds of
>>computer chess articles on the net.  Perhaps he has read Ernst Heinz's book.  Or
>>in some other way become familiar with the state of the art.
>>
>>In this respect, I agree fully with Christophe and Robert, unless the author is
>>a genius of some perplexing magnitude.
>
>
>I read Christophe's point differently.  It seems he and Robert suspect that the
>author is really not that Swedish fellow (who I think is quite unknown) but
>rather somebody well-known (who has previously produced a very strong program),
>or at the very least somebody who has been seen in CC circles asking a lot of
>technical questions.


I wouldn't personally go that far, yet.  Not enough information.  After the
program has played for a good while, someone will notice if it seems to have
characteristics from a particular known engine, which might lead to the person
helping the actual author.  If that has happened.

There are still several different things that _could_ have happened here.
Including the possibility that it is really new, really good, which would
be really surprising of course.  :)



>
>My interpretation is based on the use of quotes around "unknown" and the use of
>the phrase, "the author is not as unknown as we might think."
>
>If my interpretation is correct, it is a much stronger statement than that the
>author has studied computer chess programming extensively (which I think few
>would disagree with!).

I don't think "studying" would be enough to dive to the front of the pack,
but that is just an opinion...




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