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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma

Author: Matthew Hull

Date: 21:32:54 09/25/02

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On September 25, 2002 at 12:38:06, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>Please take a look at my revolutionary solution of this confusing problem:
>
>http://hometown.aol.de/rolftueschen/monty.html
>
>
>At first I went into the net and collected all sort of data for my page. I
>wanted to show how important methods and methodology are for science and also
>statistics. In special the exact defining of the terms.
>
>Then suddenly I had the inspiration and in a few minutes whitewashed a million
>people who as pupils, students or even professors let them be proved wrong by
>Marilyn vos Savant who has an IQ of 228. For decades now the Monty Hall Problem
>is taken as example for conditioned probability, which is wrong!
>
>Hope you enjoy my revelations. Please tell me if you want to comment.
>
>Rolf Tueschen


Rolf, I have read the posts and your replies.  I will try to summarize your
position and you can tell me if I got it right.

If you get to play 100 times (as per the simulation programs), then yes, you
want to always switch.  But if you only get to play once, then there is no
advantage per se in switching, because you only get to play once.  In that case
it's 50:50. Toss up, Even.  Just flip for it.

How did I do?



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