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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 03:42:26 09/26/02

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On September 26, 2002 at 06:21:35, T. Opas wrote:

>Sorry, for me its very easy:
>
>There are three doors, you choose one, then the host "eliminates" one of the
>(remaining) doors and you have the right to switch - means you can choose again,
>but now between two doors.
>
>And this is a 50/50 chance, isnt it?
>
>Best Torsten

Seems so, but certain experts begin to add some attributs to the formerly chosen
door, they say, that the door "inherited" the bad 1/3 chance from the first
choice. In thought experiments the same experts come to the conclusion that with
n doors, the inheritance is going down with 1/n if you always stick. So with 1
000 000 doors, you stay with your 1/1 000 000 chance, inheritance, if you stick
and do not switch.

But the thought experiment is bad. Because I can always switch and then in the
end stick for one time. Also then my odds should be 1/n? Meaning 1/1 ooo ooo ooo
ooo etc.? That is really crass, isn't it?

Rolf Tueschen





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