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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 04:47:53 09/26/02

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On September 26, 2002 at 06:01:22, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>The situation of the candidate was not clear from the question and when things
>are not clear you can assume what you want so Merilyn was right.
>
>I know that a lot of people who did not agree with the 2/3 did not explain their
>opinion by the assumption that the candidate does not know that the host has to
>open a door so they were wrong.
>
>If you know that the host is going to open another door at the beginning of the
>game then it is clear that you should switch.
>It is not clear from the question if you know or you do not know so people can
>assume what they want.
>
>I think that a better question should be the following:
>
>Suppose you are on a game show, and you're given a choice of three doors.
>
>You know that the game has the following rules:
>1)Behind one door is a car;
>2)behind the others, goats.
>3)After you are going to pick a door the host has to open another door that
>has a goat.
>4)The host is going to ask you if you want to switch doors.
>
>Is it to your advantage to switch your choices?
>
>Uri

You are right Uri, the crucial infomation here is in 3).
If the host is all-knowing, and will with 100% certainty open a door to a goat,
then Merilyn's argument is corret, the last door will now stand a 2/3 chance of
being the car.
However if the host opens the door and only by chance is there a goat behind it,
then nothing has changed and switching will give you no better chances.

It may seem a bit strange, but of cause the second senario is completely
different in that the host should in 1/3 of the cases open the door to the car
and not to a goat.

In a sense it is a trick question if 3) has not been expressed clearly, at least
one needs to derive that information from the vaguely formulated question.

That said, I have no idea what this thread has to do with computer chess?

-S.



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