Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 04:47:53 09/26/02
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On September 26, 2002 at 06:01:22, Uri Blass wrote: > >The situation of the candidate was not clear from the question and when things >are not clear you can assume what you want so Merilyn was right. > >I know that a lot of people who did not agree with the 2/3 did not explain their >opinion by the assumption that the candidate does not know that the host has to >open a door so they were wrong. > >If you know that the host is going to open another door at the beginning of the >game then it is clear that you should switch. >It is not clear from the question if you know or you do not know so people can >assume what they want. > >I think that a better question should be the following: > >Suppose you are on a game show, and you're given a choice of three doors. > >You know that the game has the following rules: >1)Behind one door is a car; >2)behind the others, goats. >3)After you are going to pick a door the host has to open another door that >has a goat. >4)The host is going to ask you if you want to switch doors. > >Is it to your advantage to switch your choices? > >Uri You are right Uri, the crucial infomation here is in 3). If the host is all-knowing, and will with 100% certainty open a door to a goat, then Merilyn's argument is corret, the last door will now stand a 2/3 chance of being the car. However if the host opens the door and only by chance is there a goat behind it, then nothing has changed and switching will give you no better chances. It may seem a bit strange, but of cause the second senario is completely different in that the host should in 1/3 of the cases open the door to the car and not to a goat. In a sense it is a trick question if 3) has not been expressed clearly, at least one needs to derive that information from the vaguely formulated question. That said, I have no idea what this thread has to do with computer chess? -S.
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