Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 03:57:57 09/27/02
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On September 27, 2002 at 06:37:19, Sune Fischer wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at > >>Let's give a short verdict. >>Marilyn was wrong because she didn't answer exactly the question of Mr. >>Whitaker. Probably she was influenced by the practice in the named show. But >>Monty, the host, stated that he was _not_ forced to open a door. > >If so, then we are discussion two different questions of course. Ah, thanks Sune. I knew that we could not differ on that one. In your first response you left out the "Moral" addendum in my post about *Conclusion*. > >>So the >>question, if a candidate could make a logical choice with advantageous chances, >>must be answered with 'No!'. Therefore I insisted on the importance of the >>psychological situation of the candidate and not the picture as viewed from the >>outside, or after a simulation, because the candidate had only a single unique >>occasion to make his choice. In his view the opening of a door simply reduced >>the alternatives and led to a chance of 1/2 for both doors. > >This depends on what the candidate knows about the host, if he knows the host >knows, then he should expect 2/3 chance by switching Yes. But exactly that was the revealation I made. No big science at all, just a careful analysis of the historic data about Marilyn vos Savant. Nothing more nothing less. Please don't feel offended that I presented the case here in computer chess, I thought it could help many people to be more careful in stats and conclusions. . > >>In special the >>candidate could _not_ know if the host had opened a further door because he knew >>that no car was behind it. The text of the question does not allow to make a >>different conclusion. QED) > >But since you are the one that makes the decision, and you are fully informed by >the question, your answer should be to advice him to switch. Who is "you"? - The candidate was innocent. So how could he have a clue about the exact relations? That was my point. Only the psychological situation of the candidate mattered. Not the one of the host or ours or Marilyn's. Is this ok for you? Rolf Tueschen > >However, since he loses nothing by switching and possibly gains better odds by a >switch, the answer should still be to switch, something he can figure out for >himself. > >-S. > >>Rolf Tueschen >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >>> >>>-S. >>>>Uri
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