Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 04:15:52 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 06:57:57, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>This depends on what the candidate knows about the host, if he knows the host >>knows, then he should expect 2/3 chance by switching > >Yes. But exactly that was the revealation I made. No big science at all, just a >careful analysis of the historic data about Marilyn vos Savant. Nothing more >nothing less. Please don't feel offended that I presented the case here in >computer chess, I thought it could help many people to be more careful in stats >and conclusions. > Yes, but it is a little confusing because there are two 'you's there. There is the "you" on stage that may know nothing, and the "you" who should answer the question on behalf of the "you" on the stage. It is not clear what the "you" on stage knows about the host, i agree with that. But I don't see what it has to with doors opening or not, that must be a different question I think. >. >> >>>In special the >>>candidate could _not_ know if the host had opened a further door because he knew >>>that no car was behind it. The text of the question does not allow to make a >>>different conclusion. QED) >> >>But since you are the one that makes the decision, and you are fully informed by >>the question, your answer should be to advice him to switch. > >Who is "you"? - The candidate was innocent. So how could he have a clue about >the exact relations? That was my point. Only the psychological situation of the >candidate mattered. Not the one of the host or ours or Marilyn's. Is this ok for >you? Well I don't know about "psychological situation" part, but the information regarding who knows what is important. The host must know, and the candidate must know that the host knows. -S. >Rolf Tueschen > >> >>However, since he loses nothing by switching and possibly gains better odds by a >>switch, the answer should still be to switch, something he can figure out for >>himself. >> >>-S. >> >>>Rolf Tueschen >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>>-S. >>>>>Uri
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