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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma *Conclusion*

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 04:41:07 09/27/02

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On September 27, 2002 at 06:57:57, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>Who is "you"? - The candidate was innocent. So how could he have a clue about
>the exact relations? That was my point.

The question is not what the candidate should do based on his knowledge but what
is best for him based on your knowledge.

If your knowledge is that the host's strategy is to always open
a door then it means that it is better for him to switch.

Understanding that the host's strategy is always to open a wrong
door from the question does not seem to be wrong to me.

I did not say that marilyn was right because data is missing but I said that she
was right because it is not clear from the question that
data is missing and it is possible to understand it in
the way that sune does it.

If someone ask you how much is 5+7*8 you can say 5+56=61
another solver can say that it is (5+7)*8=96

Who is right?

I do not think that you can say that the first was wrong because
it is normal to assume that multiplying come first and only
later comes adding.

This case is similiar.

Misunderstanding of the intention
of the question is possible.

I suspect that it is even possible to say that people
who say that data is missing are
wrong in understanding the question because of lack of knowledge
in english but I am not sure.
I cannot say that they are wrong in solving the question.

People who solve the question by saying that the probability is 1/2 are clearly
wrong because even if you do not know the strategy of the host you
cannot say that the probability is 1/2 and it even can be a bad idea
to switch your choice if the strategy of the host is to open
a door only when you choose the right door.

Uri



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