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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma *Conclusion*

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 06:12:37 09/27/02

Go up one level in this thread


On September 27, 2002 at 08:37:46, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

[snipped - hope its okay...]

>>"Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given a choice of three doors. Behind
>>one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door-;say No. 1-;and the
>>host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door-;say No. 3-;which
>>has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your
>>advantage to switch your choice? "
>>
>>So we agree that a contestant may or may not have the knowledge needed, but
>>eventhough it is the contestant that should decide in the actual show, it isn't
>>the contestant that should decide NOW, now it is YOU, and you have just been
>>fully informed.
>>
>>I believe an equivalent (but much less confusing) formulation of the question
>>could be:
>>
>>"Suppose George is on a game show, and George is given a choice of three doors.
>>Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. George picks a door, and the
>>host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, which has a goat.
>>He then says to George, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to George's
>>advantage to say yes? "
>>
>>Obviously it isn't George he is asking, it is you who knows the truth.
>>
>>So I believe Marilyn gave the correct answer/explanation after all.
>>The short answer would have been "yes".
>>
>>-S.
>
>Now you've entered into the deep mode and that is fine. However do not confuse
>your argumentation and the question if Marilyn was right. I just answered on
>Uri, who already made a couple of your arguments. Of course we have
>"possibilities" here, but a real expert, in such a twilight situation, as you
>agreed, must at least give a few adds and not just a short yes. So I stay to my
>No because a real expert must also consider the candidate as he was in the show,
>innocent, not with the complete knowledge.

I see it as though there two levels, there is the question the host is asking
George, and there is the question being asked to you.

I believe you are discussing what should be Georges reply, while me and Marilyn
wants to reply the final question, ie using a knowledge that George may or may
not have to respond on his behalf.
I simply consider the knowledge of George to be irrelevant.

So no wonder we don't see eye to eye on this, but with my "clarification" of the
question, I hope we can come to some sort of agreement, unless you feel the
questions are not equivalent in some way.

> So now we should see tht the problem
>was really worth it to be in a topic here. We learned that we should always be
>very careful before we reject critics.
>
>Thank you for the energy you spent on the topic

Yes that must have burned a few kJoules:)

-S.
>Rolf Tueschen



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