Author: Gerrit Reubold
Date: 07:58:40 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 10:43:02, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 10:32:18, Gerrit Reubold wrote: > >>>>If you don't agree: Consider the game with 1.000.000 doors, the candidate >>>>chooses door 1. The host opens 999.998 doors, without knowing where the car is. >>>>By incredible luck all those doors have goats behind them. There is now door 1 >>>>and door 432.102 closed. So again there is a game! Do you agree that the >>>>candidate should switch? >>> >>>No >>> >>>in 100000 cases you are going to have 999998 cases when there >>>is no game >>>1 case when there is a game when it is a good idea to switch and >>>1 case when there is a game when it is a bad idea to switch >>> >> >>I discuss only the situation when there is a game. The two cases when there is a >>game are _NOT_ equally likely. >> >>When the game starts: >>The car is with 999999/1000000 probability behind one of the doors 2..1000000. >> >>Do you agree? >> >>Now 999998 doors are opened, the 999999/1000000 probability is still correct. >>The car is with 1/1000000 behind door 1 and with 999999/1000000 behind door >>432.102 >> >>Do you agree? > >Hehe. I want to state that I will prevent if we have here a united flight to the >moon tonight. I am the responsible and I will prevent such cases of despair. > >No, I can't accept. Formerly you had, in your example, one door with 1/1000000 >and 999999 doors with 999999/1000000. Now you open, means take away 998999 >doors, right? Then you have two doors, right? With - now - each 1/2. > >You know what I mean? It's not magic. The 998999 doors are away. So there is no >talking about such incredible chances. > >You see where your mistake was? > >Good weekend > >Rolf Tueschen > > > >> >>Why should the probabilities be affected by the mind of the host, he just opens >>doors, with or without knowing where the car is? >> >>Greetings, >>Gerrit I don't see my mistake. What is your reason to assume that both doors have 1/2 probability? Do I have to take your word for that? BTW: What are the probabilities if the host knew where the car was, in your opinion. Greetings, schönes Wochenende, Gerrit
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