Author: Peter Berger
Date: 08:03:56 09/27/02
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On September 27, 2002 at 10:43:02, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >Hehe. I want to state that I will prevent if we have here a united flight to the >moon tonight. I am the responsible and I will prevent such cases of despair. > >No, I can't accept. Formerly you had, in your example, one door with 1/1000000 >and 999999 doors with 999999/1000000. Now you open, means take away 998999 >doors, right? Then you have two doors, right? With - now - each 1/2. > >You know what I mean? It's not magic. The 998999 doors are away. So there is no >talking about such incredible chances. > >You see where your mistake was? > >Good weekend > >Rolf Tueschen > Come on - what is so difficult to understand here? Maybe 1.000.000 is too high a number and maybe cars confuse people - let's take a cookie and 10 cups. You know there is exactly one cookie and it is in one of the cups. You win when you find it. You make your first guess: cookie is in cup 1. OK, says the Monty guy - now I take away 8 loser cups from the 9 you didn't choose (either he knows or he is just lucky, doesn't matter at all). Now two cups are left, cup 7 and yours. Do you really think the probablity that your initial guess was right is 1/2 ? Maybe this is the point that confuses people here. The Monty takes away 8 of the 9 cups, _not_ 8 of the 10 including yours. Btw, when it is about the three doors, the car and the goats there is an easy solution for all this discussion. Take a piece of paper and write all cases down - shouldn't take more than 10 minutes I suppose. Peter
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