Author: Uri Blass
Date: 08:10:52 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 11:03:56, Peter Berger wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 10:43:02, Rolf Tueschen wrote: > >>Hehe. I want to state that I will prevent if we have here a united flight to the >>moon tonight. I am the responsible and I will prevent such cases of despair. >> >>No, I can't accept. Formerly you had, in your example, one door with 1/1000000 >>and 999999 doors with 999999/1000000. Now you open, means take away 998999 >>doors, right? Then you have two doors, right? With - now - each 1/2. >> >>You know what I mean? It's not magic. The 998999 doors are away. So there is no >>talking about such incredible chances. >> >>You see where your mistake was? >> >>Good weekend >> >>Rolf Tueschen >> > >Come on - what is so difficult to understand here? >Maybe 1.000.000 is too high a number and maybe cars confuse people - let's take >a cookie and 10 cups. > >You know there is exactly one cookie and it is in one of the cups. You win when >you find it. > >You make your first guess: cookie is in cup 1. > >OK, says the Monty guy - now I take away 8 loser cups from the 9 you didn't >choose (either he knows or he is just lucky, doesn't matter at all). It is important suppose for the discussion that he does not know and take cups 3-10 There are 10 cases with probability of 1/10 for the place of the winner cup. In 8 out of 10 cases there is no game(because the winner cup is not in 1 or 2. In 2 out of 10 cases he really take 8 loser cups. In 1 of these 2 cases the cup is in 1 and in the second case the cup is in 2 The 2 cases have the same probability so the probability is 1/2. Hope my explanation is clear. Uri > >Now two cups are left, cup 7 and yours. > >Do you really think the probablity that your initial guess was right is 1/2 ? > >Maybe this is the point that confuses people here. The Monty takes away 8 of the >9 cups, _not_ 8 of the 10 including yours. > >Btw, when it is about the three doors, the car and the goats there is an easy >solution for all this discussion. Take a piece of paper and write all cases down >- shouldn't take more than 10 minutes I suppose. > >Peter
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