Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 08:27:15 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 11:18:44, Peter Berger wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 11:10:52, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On September 27, 2002 at 11:03:56, Peter Berger wrote: >> >>>On September 27, 2002 at 10:43:02, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>> >>>>Hehe. I want to state that I will prevent if we have here a united flight to the >>>>moon tonight. I am the responsible and I will prevent such cases of despair. >>>> >>>>No, I can't accept. Formerly you had, in your example, one door with 1/1000000 >>>>and 999999 doors with 999999/1000000. Now you open, means take away 998999 >>>>doors, right? Then you have two doors, right? With - now - each 1/2. >>>> >>>>You know what I mean? It's not magic. The 998999 doors are away. So there is no >>>>talking about such incredible chances. >>>> >>>>You see where your mistake was? >>>> >>>>Good weekend >>>> >>>>Rolf Tueschen >>>> >>> >>>Come on - what is so difficult to understand here? >>>Maybe 1.000.000 is too high a number and maybe cars confuse people - let's take >>>a cookie and 10 cups. >>> >>>You know there is exactly one cookie and it is in one of the cups. You win when >>>you find it. >>> >>>You make your first guess: cookie is in cup 1. >>> >>>OK, says the Monty guy - now I take away 8 loser cups from the 9 you didn't >>>choose (either he knows or he is just lucky, doesn't matter at all). >> >>It is important >>suppose for the discussion that he does not know and take cups 3-10 >> >>There are 10 cases with probability of 1/10 for the place of the winner cup. >> >>In 8 out of 10 cases there is no game(because the winner cup is not in 1 or 2. >> >>In 2 out of 10 cases he really take 8 loser cups. >>In 1 of these 2 cases the cup is in 1 and in the second case the cup is in 2 >> >>The 2 cases have the same probability so the probability is 1/2. >> >>Hope my explanation is clear. >> >>Uri >> > >Yes, it is. But this is not the game that is being played - it's all about the >Monty taking away 8 cups and never failing to find the losers which is the basic >Monty setup :). > >Your first cup's chances never improve at all - you are still with the 1/10 >chance you started with. And this is exactly the delusion in the whole thing. You are - like many others, perhaps most - thinking in the two camps theory of Marilyn vos Savant. But that is nonsense for the event here with just 1 trial and nothing more. Look and believe me at least a bit, say the candidate were on the toilette after his first choice and then he came back after the host took away the 8 cups, ok? Just relax, Peter! Now I ask you, what should the candidate do? He doesn't even remembers what cup he has chosen a while ago!! How much chances he has? Between the two cups? Even if the host told him what were his first cup? Does it really matters when the candidate can watch what the hostis doing when he's unable to understand what the host has in mind????? Ahhhhhh, I'm tired now, but this was my last effort. Have a nice weekend Rolf Tueschen
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