Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 08:31:39 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 11:15:27, Uri Blass wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 11:09:41, Gerrit Reubold wrote: > >>On September 27, 2002 at 11:02:59, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>On September 27, 2002 at 10:32:18, Gerrit Reubold wrote: >>> >>>>On September 27, 2002 at 10:18:19, Uri Blass wrote: >>>> >>>>>On September 27, 2002 at 10:04:42, Gerrit Reubold wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On September 27, 2002 at 09:45:47, Uri Blass wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>I discuss this situation: >>>>>>- The candidate chooses door 1 >>>>>>- The host chooses (say) door 3, and is lucky, there is a goat in door 3 >>>>>> >>>>>>So there _is_ a game! >>>>>> >>>>>>Now the candidate should switch and double its winning chances. >>>>>> >>>>>>Do you agree? >>>>> >>>>>No >>>>>> >>>>>>If you don't agree: Consider the game with 1.000.000 doors, the candidate >>>>>>chooses door 1. The host opens 999.998 doors, without knowing where the car is. >>>>>>By incredible luck all those doors have goats behind them. There is now door 1 >>>>>>and door 432.102 closed. So again there is a game! Do you agree that the >>>>>>candidate should switch? >>>>> >>>>>No >>>>> >>>>>in 100000 cases you are going to have 999998 cases when there >>>>>is no game >>>>>1 case when there is a game when it is a good idea to switch and >>>>>1 case when there is a game when it is a bad idea to switch >>>>> >>>> >>>>I discuss only the situation when there is a game. The two cases when there is a >>>>game are _NOT_ equally likely. >>>> >>>>When the game starts: >>>>The car is with 999999/1000000 probability behind one of the doors 2..1000000. >>>> >>>>Do you agree? >>> >>>Yes >>>> >>>>Now 999998 doors are opened, the 999999/1000000 probability is still correct. >>> >>>Before I see the result of opening the doors I agree. >>> >>>>The car is with 1/1000000 behind door 1 and with 999999/1000000 behind door >>>>432.102 >>>> >>>>Do you agree? >>> >>>No >>> >> >>Why not? The car is not moving. It is not more likely that it is behind door 1 >>than before the doors were opened. > >The car is not moving but my knowledge is changed. >The fact that there is a game changes the probability. > >Let play 100000 games when the car is behind door i in game i. > >Wehn the car is behind door 1 you lose by switching. >When the car is behind door 432102 you win by switching >In other cases there is no game. > >The number of wins equal to the number of losses and it mean that the >probability is 1/2. > >Uri But Uri, this is only true if you forget about the morphic field influence (Sheldrake) for a moment! Because in reality the 8 taken cups still exert their full power of probability on the single left cup in 'their' _camp_!!! So that is a force you can't deny, no? Rolf Tueschen
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