Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 10:18:00 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 12:53:10, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>On September 27, 2002 at 12:39:22, Gerrit Reubold wrote:
>
>>I don't know what a "frafra" is. I think this argument ("chosen door can't get
>>prob. point back") is OK and not a delusion.
>>
>>We are perhaps talking about different games. NOTE: I don't know about the Monty
>>Hall show and his rules. I discuss the following "game":
>>
>>- the candidate chooses one door.
>>- the host opens a door, but not the chosen one.
>>- He must open a door!
>
>No, that is the question, if he must. It was said "he opens", in one case, but
>if always is unknown. But that doesn't matter for my point. But if he would not
>be forced would you then agree with me?
>
>
>>- The opened door does NOT have the car (otherwise the situation is
>>uninteresting).
>>- The candidate is offered to switch
>>
>>Is this the game which you are discussing, too?
>
>Let me again remind you of my metaphor with the candidate leaving to the
>toilette after his choice. Then he comes back after the host had taken the rest
>exception one. So the candidate has 2 doors in view, ok? And for this choice
>then, either the one or the other, this is 1/2. And we should try to discuss it.
>What I meant with the example. The candidate can not follow the complicated
>simulation thoughts of the probability friends. He sees two doorsand he has both
>the same chances no matter which one he takes.
>
>Note that it's HIS situation, not the one of the host or the experts outside the
>hall.
>
>Rolf Tueschen
Let me add some hint.
The candidate makes not a choice of the sort, well, I insist here, I stick, and
I would also stick in the next million "games" - nobody knows what he would do!!
And still our experts here come running and say "uh, that a typical case of
simulating things. We run a test. And lets see he will always stick - makes 1/3
or he will always switch, makes 2/3 - wow, fantastic!" But then I say, wait a
minute, there is no reason to believe that the candidate would always do this or
that. We have only one single case. And that is the point, many here could not
understand. But in real it's most simple.
Or would you propose to switch because the car is SURELY behind the other door??
Think about that add here for 5 minutes and you will understand.
Rolf Tueschen
>
>
>
>>
>>Greetings,
>>Gerrit
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>
>>>The same delusion when SSDF is making a ranking list out of different species
>>>individuals. We have 8 modern combinations. With all the stuff involved and we
>>>have embryos and saurians and intelligent sand and whatever. And all play chess
>>>games against each other! And this is accepted because the actual best and
>>>commercialy interesting progs are on the 8 best places. Big surprise, no?!
>>>
>>>Rolf Tueschen
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