Author: Uri Blass
Date: 11:31:50 09/27/02
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On September 27, 2002 at 14:12:34, Peter Berger wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 14:04:01, Uri Blass wrote: > >>I am sure that I am right. >>Marilyn was also right because she answered a different question. >> >>The probability after knowing that the *not knowing* Monty >>took away all the no other no car door is 1/2. >> >>Suppose I choose place 1 and you choose place 2. >>Now the not knowing Monty take away 3-1000000 and we see that there are >>no cars in them. >> >>Do you agree that the probability that I am right is equal >>to the probability that you are right? >> >>The same happens if the story does not include you and if >>I know that the host is going always to open doors 3-100000 >>because I can imagine a friend that choose door number 2. >> >>Uri > >That's not the equivalent setup, Uri. > >This is more like it: > >Imagine you stand at door 1, I stand at door 2 and the not-knowing Monty opens >doors 2-999999 by a random order. > >By some incredible luck number 2 is the last one left and still no car showed >up. > >Then he asks you: Mr Blass, do you want to switch or keep with your first >choíce. What would you do ;-) ? > >Peter I think that the chances are 1/2 Suppose that I know that the starategy of the not knowing host is always to open doors 2-999999 after I opened door 1. I can imagine a friend that stand at door 1000000 I and my friend have the same chances to be right. one and only one of us is right and it means that the probability for me to be right is exactly 1/2 in case that some incredible luck happened. Uri
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