Author: Gerrit Reubold
Date: 11:33:47 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 12:53:10, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>On September 27, 2002 at 12:39:22, Gerrit Reubold wrote:
>
>>I don't know what a "frafra" is. I think this argument ("chosen door can't get
>>prob. point back") is OK and not a delusion.
>>
>>We are perhaps talking about different games. NOTE: I don't know about the Monty
>>Hall show and his rules. I discuss the following "game":
>>
>>- the candidate chooses one door.
>>- the host opens a door, but not the chosen one.
>>- He must open a door!
>
>No, that is the question, if he must. It was said "he opens", in one case, but
>if always is unknown. But that doesn't matter for my point. But if he would not
>be forced would you then agree with me?
Then we were indeed discussing different games. If he is not forced to open a
door then I have no opinion, I admit.
Sorry, but I think I made it clear earlier which game I was talking about.
Greetings,
Gerrit
>
>
>>- The opened door does NOT have the car (otherwise the situation is
>>uninteresting).
>>- The candidate is offered to switch
>>
>>Is this the game which you are discussing, too?
>
>Let me again remind you of my metaphor with the candidate leaving to the
>toilette after his choice. Then he comes back after the host had taken the rest
>exception one. So the candidate has 2 doors in view, ok? And for this choice
>then, either the one or the other, this is 1/2. And we should try to discuss it.
>What I meant with the example. The candidate can not follow the complicated
>simulation thoughts of the probability friends. He sees two doorsand he has both
>the same chances no matter which one he takes.
>
>Note that it's HIS situation, not the one of the host or the experts outside the
>hall.
>
>Rolf Tueschen
>
>
>
>>
>>Greetings,
>>Gerrit
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>
>>>The same delusion when SSDF is making a ranking list out of different species
>>>individuals. We have 8 modern combinations. With all the stuff involved and we
>>>have embryos and saurians and intelligent sand and whatever. And all play chess
>>>games against each other! And this is accepted because the actual best and
>>>commercialy interesting progs are on the 8 best places. Big surprise, no?!
>>>
>>>Rolf Tueschen
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