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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma

Author: Peter Berger

Date: 13:09:31 09/27/02

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On September 27, 2002 at 16:02:33, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>On September 27, 2002 at 15:47:15, Peter Berger wrote:
>
>>On September 27, 2002 at 15:27:35, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On September 27, 2002 at 15:18:52, Peter Berger wrote:
>>>
>>>>On September 27, 2002 at 15:11:12, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On September 27, 2002 at 14:58:25, Peter Berger wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On September 27, 2002 at 14:33:22, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Correction:
>>>>>>>I meant one and only one of us is right if incredible luck happened.
>>>>>>>of course in most cases we will discover that both of us wrong.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Read http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?254769 . I am your friend on
>>>>>>g5 :).
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Peter
>>>>>
>>>>>I read it and replied it without the friend.
>>>>>simulation prove that out of 64000 games
>>>>>only 2000 are practically played and
>>>>>I win 1000 out of 2000 by not switching.
>>>>>
>>>>>With the friend I get the same and I see no reason to prefer a1 and not g5 if I
>>>>>know that the host does not choose g5.
>>>>>
>>>>>If the host choose random squares the game is
>>>>>practically the same because all the squares are the same
>>>>>from the host point of view when he knows nothing about them.
>>>>>
>>>>>Uri
>>>>
>>>>The right assumption IMHO is not that the friend sits on g5 but that the friend
>>>>always sits on the other field left the host didn't expose.
>>>>
>>>>Peter
>>>
>>>We assume that the host does not know the right square.
>>>
>>>suppose that the host strategy is not to expose a random square.
>>>
>>>62/64 of the games are canceled because the host exposed
>>>the king
>>>
>>>Let look only in 64000 game that the host did not expose g5
>>>
>>>62000 of them are canceled
>>>I win 1000 of them and the friend win 1000 of them.
>>>
>>>The same is for 64000 games when the host did not expose g4.
>>>
>>>For every square that the host does not expose I have the same number
>>>of wins and losses.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>One last trial - to keep the analogy with the original Monty problem and the
>>adding of additional doors.
>>
>>I think it is just like this:
>>
>>1.) You have the first choice -> you take a1
>>2.) The host starts opening doors, he opens 62 of them and none has the king (he
>>is just lucky or he knows, doesn't matter).
>>3.) Then he adresses me : Which of the 64 fields that don't have Uri on them do
>>you want to choose -> I choose the one not exposed yet
>>4.) Then he adresses you: do you want to keep with your square or change to
>>Peter's?
>>
>>There are only two interesting squares left - one of them has the king. But I
>>think you will agree that yours sucks compaired to mine.
>>
>>Peter
>
>
>Let's see, the problem is identic with the Monty Hall case. We have two fields
>still closed, right? Then we had a 50% chance to open the King either on a1 ot
>the other field. Period.
>
>Rolf Tueschen

Thanks for answering and your honesty.

Do you agree to a match under these exact conditions where you get 10 € every
time you win and I get 5 € every time I win when you have to be the guy who
makes the first choice?

(pete, looking forward to a little extra income :) )



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