Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 04:49:50 09/28/02
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On September 28, 2002 at 05:53:07, Omid David wrote: >We have to understand what the "switch" operation does here: If our first choice >was correct, it will turn it into false; and if our first choice was false, it >will turn into correct. So in order to eventually succeed, we have to initially >choose the correct door in "stay" method, and the *wrong* door in "switch" >method. > >Thus, the operation "switch" merely "negates" the probability, i.e. if the >initial probability was x%, it will now become (100-x)%. > >For n doors, the success probability of "stay" will be (100/n)%, and the success >probability of "switch" will be (100 - 100/n)%. > >Examples: > >In the case of 3 doors, the initial probability was 33% (x=33), so after the >"switch" operation, it will become 67% (100-33=67). This is mathematical nonsense. No definition here. See my answer to Bruce in CTF. Rolf Tueschen > >For 10,000 doors, the success probability of "switch" will be 99.99%, while >"stay" will only have a 0.01% probability of success. > >In Marilyn vos Savant's example with 777,777 doors, the probability of success >with "switch" will be 99.99987%. > >Omid.
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