Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 04:59:32 09/28/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 17:55:21, Antonio Dieguez wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 11:27:15, Rolf Tueschen wrote: > >>On September 27, 2002 at 11:18:44, Peter Berger wrote: >> >>>On September 27, 2002 at 11:10:52, Uri Blass wrote: >>> >>>>On September 27, 2002 at 11:03:56, Peter Berger wrote: >>>> >>>>>On September 27, 2002 at 10:43:02, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Hehe. I want to state that I will prevent if we have here a united flight to the >>>>>>moon tonight. I am the responsible and I will prevent such cases of despair. >>>>>> >>>>>>No, I can't accept. Formerly you had, in your example, one door with 1/1000000 >>>>>>and 999999 doors with 999999/1000000. Now you open, means take away 998999 >>>>>>doors, right? Then you have two doors, right? With - now - each 1/2. >>>>>> >>>>>>You know what I mean? It's not magic. The 998999 doors are away. So there is no >>>>>>talking about such incredible chances. >>>>>> >>>>>>You see where your mistake was? >>>>>> >>>>>>Good weekend >>>>>> >>>>>>Rolf Tueschen >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Come on - what is so difficult to understand here? >>>>>Maybe 1.000.000 is too high a number and maybe cars confuse people - let's take >>>>>a cookie and 10 cups. >>>>> >>>>>You know there is exactly one cookie and it is in one of the cups. You win when >>>>>you find it. >>>>> >>>>>You make your first guess: cookie is in cup 1. >>>>> >>>>>OK, says the Monty guy - now I take away 8 loser cups from the 9 you didn't >>>>>choose (either he knows or he is just lucky, doesn't matter at all). >>>> >>>>It is important >>>>suppose for the discussion that he does not know and take cups 3-10 >>>> >>>>There are 10 cases with probability of 1/10 for the place of the winner cup. >>>> >>>>In 8 out of 10 cases there is no game(because the winner cup is not in 1 or 2. >>>> >>>>In 2 out of 10 cases he really take 8 loser cups. >>>>In 1 of these 2 cases the cup is in 1 and in the second case the cup is in 2 >>>> >>>>The 2 cases have the same probability so the probability is 1/2. >>>> >>>>Hope my explanation is clear. >>>> >>>>Uri >>>> >>> >>>Yes, it is. But this is not the game that is being played - it's all about the >>>Monty taking away 8 cups and never failing to find the losers which is the basic >>>Monty setup :). >>> >>>Your first cup's chances never improve at all - you are still with the 1/10 >>>chance you started with. >> >> >>And this is exactly the delusion in the whole thing. You are - like many others, >>perhaps most - thinking in the two camps theory of Marilyn vos Savant. But that >>is nonsense for the event here with just 1 trial and nothing more. Look and >>believe me at least a bit, say the candidate were on the toilette after his >>first choice and then he came back after the host took away the 8 cups, ok? Just >>relax, Peter! >> >>Now I ask you, what should the candidate do? He doesn't even remembers what cup >>he has chosen a while ago!! >> >>How much chances he has? Between the two cups? Even if the host told him what >>were his first cup? Does it really matters when the candidate can watch what the >>hostis doing when he's unable to understand what the host has in mind????? >> >>Ahhhhhh, I'm tired now, but this was my last effort. > >It's incredible this thread is so large because you putting so much effort in >your error. > >Let me try to convice you too. > >There are two doors. > >You are not choosing a door. >You are choosing if you change the door you already have. > >If the door you already have is A then you lose. >If the door you already have is B then you win. > >So, you must see wich is the probability of you having already a door type A or >B. > >that is all. > >pd: it doesn't matter if the guy doesn't know probabilities or goes to the >toilet. Here we can tell him that he should switch :) You're right for either - trials n>3 in the original 3-doors problem and - when N of doors gets higher and higher than 3 in either 1 trial or more Explanation: for 3-doors and 1 or 2 trials there is no defined probability. (I will quote here the explanation I wrote to Bruce in CTF.) Rolf Tueschen
This page took 0.02 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.