Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 06:10:10 09/28/02
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On September 28, 2002 at 08:41:51, Sune Fischer wrote: >I think it is time to give in, actually it isn't very complicated at all: > >Assume the hosts always opens to a goat (by luck or not): > >You first pick a car (1/3), you switch and pick a car (0%) >You first pick a goat (2/3), you switch and pick a car (100%) First of all you made a mistake.Your firstline should read "pick a goat (0%)". Now I'll show you my version: You first pick a car (1/3), you stick and pick a car. (100%) You first pick a goat (2/3), you stick and pick a goat. (0%)===> 50% in all You first pick a car, you switch and pick a goat. (0%) You first pick a goat, you switch and pick a car. (100%) ===> 50 %in all Where is your problem to understand the 50% for one single trial? The differences with your added 1/ or 2/3 doesn't matter for the four possible cases. > >So by always switching you get 66.66% chance of a win. There is no "always". Isn't that clear by now? There is no way to get a better than 50% chance for 1 trial. Rolf Tueschen P.S. I think that all has been said by now and we should leave CCC. It has been shown how difficult stistics andprobability are and how confusing. >With N>3 the odds gets even better. > >How the host is supposed to "always" pick a goat by shear luck >is a different question, in fact it seems contradictory to >you assumption about luck, but if you only run 1 experiment you >don't have worry about those questions. >
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