Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 06:32:48 09/28/02
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On September 28, 2002 at 09:10:10, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >On September 28, 2002 at 08:41:51, Sune Fischer wrote: > >>I think it is time to give in, actually it isn't very complicated at all: >> >>Assume the hosts always opens to a goat (by luck or not): >> >>You first pick a car (1/3), you switch and pick a car (0%) >>You first pick a goat (2/3), you switch and pick a car (100%) > >First of all you made a mistake.Your firstline should read "pick a goat (0%)". > >Now I'll show you my version: > >You first pick a car (1/3), you stick and pick a car. (100%) >You first pick a goat (2/3), you stick and pick a goat. (0%)===> 50% in all How do you get 50%, it's either 1/3 or 2/3, those are you first guess chances. >You first pick a car, you switch and pick a goat. (0%) >You first pick a goat, you switch and pick a car. (100%) ===> 50 %in all You have an error, it is twice (100%) and not (0%), it should read: You first pick a car (1/3), you switch and win a goat. (100%) You first pick a goat (2/3), you switch and win a car. (100%) ===> 200%???? Now you should be able to see the nonsense of the 50%, perhaps you want to write 200% now? :) >Where is your problem to understand the 50% for one single trial? The >differences with your added 1/ or 2/3 doesn't matter for the four possible >cases. My problem is that math is different from intuition, and then you should trust math. -S.
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