Author: Christophe Theron
Date: 09:32:26 10/04/02
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On October 03, 2002 at 13:00:20, leonid wrote:
>Hi,
>
>I just was seeing one program on TV that said that Linux is the most quickly
>growing system between all existing. So, I am curious to know more about
>perspective of this free platform. What is Your perspective about future growing
>for Linux and the way that it could go? Where will be Linux in around 10 years
>from now?
>
>Cheers,
>Leonid.
I can tell you about the future, but I cannot give exact dates.
Here is what is going to happen:
Linux will get more and more acceptance both for servers and on the desktop.
At one point it will be such a threat for Windows, that Microsoft will decide to
give Windows for free, or almost. I don't think that they will go as far as
releasing it open source, but that remains to be seen.
This will not be a real problem for Microsoft, because they have already started
to switch their business out of the Operating System market.
In 10 years from now (approximately), Linux will have more than 50% of the
desktop market worlwide. Windows will provide Linux compatible APIs so you will
be able to run (in a limited manner) some Linux programs on your Windows box.
As I said above, Microsoft will have moved away from the Operating System
market. So the growth of Linux will not be a threat for them. The Operating
System market will be a commodity market, with Linux being the main option
because it is open and very low cost.
There will be no clash between Microsoft and Linux. Microsoft cannot win this
because Linux is FREE and OPEN. There is nothing they can do against this.
Instead, Microsoft will acknowledge this fact (they are already prepared to do
that) and will continue to do business. The difference for them is that money
will not come from Windows anymore. But they are smart and I know they will
adapt themselves.
I see this happening in 5 to 10 years, but I agree it could take more.
However I think it is the most likely outcome.
BTW I also see PalmOS and PocketPC disappearing in favor of Linux on handhelds.
I also think that looking at what's happening now and what decisions people are
taking now about Linux tells us much about the future. You must think in a much
more abstract way.
Christophe
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