Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 09:59:24 10/09/02
Go up one level in this thread
On October 09, 2002 at 05:54:18, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >On October 09, 2002 at 04:52:40, GuyHaworth wrote: > >> >>Totally agreed: only the differences between the ELO numbers are relevant. >> >>I believe there is an inflation effect in the ELO system. Sadly, investigating >>this - by theory or simulation - hasn't got to the top of my 'to do' list yet. >> >>Anyway, the more games played, the narrower the confidence bands on ELO figures, >>but the greater the inflation. >> >>I believe it was for this reason, or for the sake of credibility, that SSDF >>knocked back the absolute numbers a couple of years ago. Maybe they knocked 100 >>points off or something? >> >>Other rating systems, like Thompson's for the PCA, maybe do the rating better >>with less inflation, but they haven't been widely adopted. Perhaps that's a >>pity. >> >>g > > >In Germany I read an interesting ideas from Detlev Pordzik, aka Elvis, that SSDF >should lower their values to 250 Elo numbers. So that would reduce the maximum >numbers to 2500 and something. > >Again, what I've written hundreds of times, SSDF could do that but the inherited >worst error in SSDF is the testing of machines from DIFFERENT pools! Exitus. The >End. > >Rolf Tueschen You lost me. The "pool" the SSDF tests is the pool of computer chess programs, and in that regard, I don't see where they make any mistakes. Yes, they play games between current programs and old programs. Yes this tends to inflate their absolute ratings at the top of the list. But the "pool" is valid, and the ratings do tend to reflect results between any two players in the SSDF pool. IE if you simply pick _any_ two players on the SSDF list, and compare their ratings, and then play a match between them, their ratings will pretty closely predict the match outcome. And that is as it should be. The ratings will _not_ predict how the programs will do against programs not in the SSDF list, nor against humans with FIDE ratings that come from a completely separate pool of players...
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