Author: Graham Laight
Date: 06:47:32 10/16/02
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On October 16, 2002 at 07:50:56, Alastair Scott wrote: >On October 15, 2002 at 12:38:28, Graham Laight wrote: > >>The fact is, whether or not machines are intelligent, they're steadily doing >>more and more things that used to be regarded as intelligent behaviour. >> >>In less than 25 years from now, any task that would today be regarded as >>intelligent will be able (where allowed to) to be done more cost-effectively by >>a computer than by a machine. >> >>Yes - it's that close - and it's drawing in fast. >> >>AFAIC, that's something to celebrate! > >But who, or what, told the computer how to do the task? ;) Good point! Eventually, the computers will be able to direct themselves. At the very least, the direction which the human controller will give will become more "high level" and less detailed. >I've worked in the IT industry for 13 years and, every few years, there's been a >cry that 'something has turned up' that will design or code software with >minimal intervention. Such intimations of the death of the architect or >programmer are greatly exaggerated; these 'somethings' have invariably turned >out to be nothing. Speaking as one who has worked in computing since 1985, my opinion is that you're only half right, because the goalposts keep moving. As the capabilities of computer languages advance, so people expect more from their applications. If people's expectations of their computer applications were the same today as they were in 1985, you wouldn't be able to command a high salary for having computer skills now. The reason why we're able to easily make (relatively speaking) powerful, sophisticated applications easily today is that the power/intelligence of the tools that you're using have advanced MASSIVELY. >Automatic code generation is fine for a lot of boring and straightforward tasks, >such as displaying elements of a GUI; it falls apart when you try to do anything >much more complex than that. I can't quite agree with that. With the right tools, a single programmer today can build a powerful database application that would have required an expensive project team (which would probably have over-run its timescale) 17 years ago. -g >Alastair
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