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Subject: Re: likelihood instead of pawnunits? + chess knowledge

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 12:55:55 10/25/02

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On October 25, 2002 at 14:46:24, James Swafford wrote:

>On October 25, 2002 at 14:29:59, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On October 25, 2002 at 13:11:44, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On October 25, 2002 at 12:39:38, Ingo Lindam wrote:
>>>
>>>>Hello,
>>>>
>>>>I repost my former post under this new title just hoping to encourage
>>>>more people to join the discussion:
>>>>
>>>>I am new at the Computer-Chess Club and would like to discuss some
>>>>suggestions for (a new generation of) chess knowledge using (and
>>>>generating?) chess engines. During my time at the university and at my
>>>>first job after making my exams in computer science I was involved in
>>>>statistical speech/pattern recognition and machine translation. That
>>>>might atleast a reason for some of my ideas.
>>>>
>>>>I am not sure whether these suggestions have never been made or just
>>>>named to be impossible to implement. (I am sure they are not.)
>>>>
>>>>I would really like to see the computers measure a position rather in a
>>>>set of probabilities e.g. (P+,P=), where
>>>
>>>
>>>I think that if you look at what chess programs do, this is the essence of the
>>>evaluation.  The larger the number, the greater the probability that side will
>>>win.  The smaller the number, the greater the probability that side will lose.
>>>Scores near zero imply draw, of course...
>>
>>Not exactly.
>>
>>You can translate pawn to expected result but not to probabilities.
>
>It is trivial to translate a pawn score to a probability of a win.

No it is not trivial.

If the score is 0.00 what does it mean?

Does it mean that you are sure of a draw or does it mean that both side have 50%
chances to win?

Can you translate?

>Any number of functions in which the two are directly related may
>be picked.  Obviously, some are better than others.
>
>
>>
>>The expected result is the same in the following 2 cases:
>>probability 1% win for white and 98% draw
>>probability 40% win for white and 20% draw.
>>
>>The probabilities are not the same.
>
>So?  That just means the pawn scores shouldn't be the
>same, either.

In both cases the expected result is 50% but in the first case you are almost
sure about a draw when in the second case the position is less clear and both
sides have good chances to win.

Uri



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