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Subject: Re: likelihood instead of pawnunits? + chess knowledge

Author: Rodney Topor

Date: 16:08:02 10/25/02

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On October 25, 2002 at 16:34:40, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On October 25, 2002 at 14:29:59, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>You can translate pawn to expected result but not to probabilities.
>>
>>The expected result is the same in the following 2 cases:
>>probability 1% win for white and 98% draw
>>probability 40% win for white and 20% draw.
>>
>>The probabilities are not the same.
>>
>>Uri
>>
>And I would hope the scores are not the same for those two cases either.
>
>The 40% win probability should (IMHO) have a higher score than a position
>with a 1% win/98% draw score...
>
>The latter should be near to 0.00

I guess Uri was trying to suggest that the second position was somehow
unstable, with white and black both equally likely to win but a draw
being relatively unlikely.  I guess such a situation might occur in a wild
tactical position.  In this case, the 3 probabilities might describe the
position better than a single expected value.  But I have no idea whether
this would be useful or not.

Rodney Topor



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