Author: Bob Durrett
Date: 06:55:32 10/27/02
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On October 27, 2002 at 09:53:37, Jesper Antonsson wrote: >On October 26, 2002 at 17:10:27, Jorge Pichard wrote: > >>In your case, since you have a lot of patience I recommend to wait until the >>Christmas of 2010, probabbly by then an Intel microchip might be as fast as the >>Deep Blue that play against Kasparov in 1997. > >That may be a bit too optimistic (but not much). If the NPS doubles every 18 >months, and today's single chip maximum is 1 millon NPS (perhaps it is closer to >two?), then we have the following progression, in MNPS: > >2002 1,0 >2003 1,6 >2004 2,5 >2005 4,0 >2006 6,3 >2007 10,1 >2008 16,0 >2009 25,4 >2010 40,3 >2011 64,0 >2012 101,6 >2013 161,3 >2014 256,0 >2015 406,4 >2016 645,1 >2017 1024,0 > >I've read that Intel expect to sustain Moore's law at least until 2017. I'm a >bit sceptical, but if true, we may reach one billion nodes per second on a >single procesor machine somewhere around that point. What's a typical branching >factor with null move? Three? Then we may be able to reach 6 ply deeper. That >depth will make today's programs look like they're playing much more >"positional" chess, even without enhancements. > >Perhaps even more frightening, in 2017, the machines will reach 1-2 ply deeper >in bullet games than they reach with standard tournament time controls today. Based on your prediction, how soon before microscopic microprocessors become available? [Assume many on a chip]
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