Author: Omid David
Date: 09:01:08 11/03/02
Go up one level in this thread
On November 03, 2002 at 10:25:38, Sune Fischer wrote: >On November 03, 2002 at 10:05:25, Omid David wrote: > >>On November 03, 2002 at 09:30:59, Sune Fischer wrote: >> >>>On November 03, 2002 at 09:16:39, Omid David wrote: >>> >>>>On November 03, 2002 at 09:00:59, Uri Blass wrote: >>>> >>>>>On November 03, 2002 at 08:41:28, Omid David wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On November 03, 2002 at 08:27:42, Joachim Rang wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On November 03, 2002 at 07:37:26, Uri Blass wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I believe that chess can be practically solved. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I believe that you do not need to prove the result in order to get a draw in >>>>>>>>every game. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I do not expect it to happen in the near future but I believe that in 2050 every >>>>>>>>comp-comp game between top programs in chess is going to be finished in a draw. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>> >>>>>>>well that are concrete bets. Maybe you're right, but I hope not. >>>>>> >>>>>>Percentage of draws between top grandmaters has always been on an increasing >>>>>>course. Nowadays 2 out of 3 games are ended in a draw. It is natural then, to >>>>>>predict that in 50 or 100 years something like 4 out of 5 games will end in a >>>>>>draw, and it could very well happen that in a little over a century almost all >>>>>>the games between top grandmasters end in a draw. But that will not mean that >>>>>>the game is solved, since the draw is the result of strength and knowledge of >>>>>>the two players, not because they *know* what to play to reach a draw. >>>>>> >>>>>>You can call a game "solved", if everyone can learn what to do in a short time, >>>>>>and will then, play the optimal moves forever (like tic-tac-toe). For computers, >>>>>>"solved" will mean that they have a database or heuristic to determine the >>>>>>optimal move at every position. For example, Shaeffer and his research group at >>>>>>the University of Alberta are close to "solving" the game of checkers, in form >>>>>>of having a database of win/lose/draw for every possible position. >>>>>> >>>>>>And according to this definition, the game of chess can NEVER EVER be solved. >>>>> >>>>>If programs always play the best move thanks to search and evaluation then >>>>>The result is the same as the result that they do it thanks to database. >>>>> >>>> >>>>Correct, but the problem is that a program can never play the best move without >>>>such a database! >>> >>>Sure it can, it can find the solution at runtime by search. >>> >> >>Yes, but here we are talking about a problem that cannot be solved by runtime >>search. > >Never say never, it cannot be solved by search _now_, but who can possibly >imagine what kind of computational power we have in 5000 years? > Practically speaking, 5000 years is "never" for many of us...! >>With a branching factor of 4, in order to reach the depth of 40 plies >>alone, you have to search about 10^24 positions. If you have a processor with >>the speed of 100 trillion (100 million million) nodes per second (10^14 NPS), it >>will take 10^10 seconds, or more than 300 years...! > >Well, 300 years is a long time, but still infinitely far from "never" :) > >-S. > > >>>Why would it need to be stored in a file on disk for it to be solved? >>>My pocket calculator does not have table of all multiplications and additions >>>hardcoded in ROM, it simply has an algorithm to answer the question at runtime >>>:) >>> >>>-S. >>> >>>>>I am also not sure that the game can never be solved by some database. >>>>>There can be a rule for classes of positions and not for a single position so it >>>>>is possible to have database that may give a move for every position and the >>>>>size of the database may be smaller than the number of the possible positions. >>>>> >>>> >>>>But still the database will be extremely large. Let's say you come up with a >>>>database of _only_ 10^30 needed positions. Where will you store it?! >>>> >>>> >>>>>Uri
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