Author: Uri Blass
Date: 22:10:23 11/12/02
Go up one level in this thread
On November 13, 2002 at 00:53:28, Russell Reagan wrote: >I'll take pondering the correct move the great majority of the time over your >rare cases any day. Almost every example you have given is an exception to the >rule. You use the example of if you have 1 second left to finish the game. In >that case, you lose, plain and simple. No pondering scheme is going to save you >there. No It is dependent on the position and the opponent. > >Let's say that we were going to play a game. The game is simple. We both pick a >gun, and we take turns shooting at each other. You can choose between a pistol >or a bb gun. The pistol is loaded with 3 bullets, and 1 chamber is empty, so you >have a 75% chance of shooting a bullet. The bb gun will shoot a bb every time. >Which gun are you going to choose? > >Obviously you should choose the pistol. Even though you only have a 75% chance >of shooting a bullet, it only takes one. You can shoot me with the bb gun all >day long and I'll go home with some bruises. You simply won't go home. > >Your method of starting threads and pondering more than one move is like >choosing the bb gun. It will do SOMETHING 100% of the time, but what it does is >less effective than the alternative. The method of only pondering one move is >like choosing the pistol. It will only work 75% of the time, but when it does, >it is VERY effective. The point is that it may be better to use average of only 80% of the time for the expected move and the rest of the time for other moves when you do not use the same time for all of the other moves. These 80% may be 90% in cases that the move that you predict is played and less than 80% in cases that the move that you predict is not played. Having less risks in trying to predict the opponent's move is also important and if I have to choose between using 60% of my time for the played move in every case(option that I do not have) and using 100% of my time for the predicted move in 60% of the cases I prefer the first option. I cannot get the first option but I may get something closer to it. Uri
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.