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Subject: Re: Junior8, Fritz8 and Shredder7 predictions

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 23:24:14 11/14/02

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On November 15, 2002 at 01:29:06, Sandro Necchi wrote:

>On November 14, 2002 at 12:48:11, Sandro Necchi wrote:
>
>>On November 14, 2002 at 07:49:14, Vincent Lejeune wrote:
>>
>>>On November 14, 2002 at 07:40:08, Sandro Necchi wrote:
>>>
>>>>On November 14, 2002 at 02:55:46, stuart taylor wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On November 14, 2002 at 00:59:54, Sandro Necchi wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On November 13, 2002 at 10:32:11, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On November 13, 2002 at 01:26:19, stuart taylor wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On November 13, 2002 at 00:41:41, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On November 12, 2002 at 13:55:34, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On November 12, 2002 at 13:30:49, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>On November 12, 2002 at 02:48:21, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>On November 11, 2002 at 22:08:13, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>On November 11, 2002 at 19:13:19, John Rice wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I realize these engines are not even available yet commercially, but I'm
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>guessing they have been beta testing for some time. For those of you involved in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>the beta testing, or have access to beta results, which of these three engines
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>do you expect to top the SSDF? With Deep Fritz 7 and Chess Tiger 15 added to the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>mix, how would you rank all five from top to bottom? Here is my guess:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>1. Shredder 7
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>2. Fritz 8
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>3. Chess Tiger 15
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>4. Junior 8
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>5. Deep Fritz 7
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>On what is based your guess? Crystal ball? Marijuana?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>  Do you use crystal ball and marijuana? Or do you think anyone who posts
>>>>>>>>>>>>something you don't like is in drugs?
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>  José C.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>It's not that I don't like it.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>It's just that rolling dices would be a more scientific method.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>But who cares about science here? It's all about impressions and fantasy.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Science is part of the fun. Impressions and fantasy are other part of the fun.
>>>>>>>>>>None of both parts deserve the accusation of using drugs. Open your mind;
>>>>>>>>>>there're more things in the world apart from science.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  José C.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Open your mind too. Never heard about "humour" (or "humor", depending on where
>>>>>>>>>you live)?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>It was an humoristic way for me to say that this prediction was bullshit.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Is my prediction (a few posts below) just as BS?
>>>>>>>>S.Taylor
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Any prediction that includes non-released programs is bullshit.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>It depends who makes it and how it is made.
>>>>>>A general statement like this is bullshit.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Sandro
>>>>>
>>>>>And just wait and see if I was right!
>>>>>Junior 8
>>>>>Tiger 15
>>>>>Fritz 8
>>>>>Shredder 7
>>>>>DF. 7
>>>>>And CM9K Utzinger very close by.
>>>>>S.Taylor
>>>>
>>>>OK, here are my expectations:
>>>>
>>>>Junior 8 = + 60 points over Junior 7
>>>>Tiger 15 = + 45 points over CT14
>>>>Fritz 8 will be postponed to make it stronger...
>>>>Shredder 7 = + 50 points over UCI Paderborn
>>>>DF 7 = we know it already. My expectation after seeing some games was 35-40
>>>>points stronger than Fritz 7
>>>
>>>1 Deep Fritz 7.0 256MB Athlon 1200 MHz  2763
>>>2 Fritz 7.0 256MB Athlon 1200 MHz  2742
>>>
>>>only 21 points difference ... so you admit that your error margin is 180% ?? ;o)
>>
>>Yes, but I do not know this program as I do with Shredder and I think it will
>>gain some points in the near feature as Fritz 7 will loose some.
>>
>>Sandro
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>Now you can guess the resulting SSDF list
>>>>
>>>>Sandro
>
>I mean that the final difference will be around 30 points.
>
>Anyway I AM NOT INTERESTED TO FIND OUT EXACTLY HOW MANY POINTS DIFFERENCE THERE
>IS BETWEEN A PROGRAM AND ANOTHER. For me 10-15 points more or less means very
>little.
>
>Today is difficult to see if a version is stronger than another and you are
>pointing out that the difference is about 14 points?
>
>SSDF makes very many games and still leave an error percentage, so how can I be
>precise 100%?

Simply by giving more freedom for error in your estimates.

Instead of saying that a program is 35-40 elo better you can say it is 5-60 elo
better.

I do not believe that you or somebody else can get a good estimate for the exact
difference in an interval of 5 elo after seeing some games.

Uri



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