Author: Rémi Coulom
Date: 04:48:37 12/22/02
Go up one level in this thread
This is what my program says: number of wins n1 = 4 number of losses n0 = 6 P(p1>p0) = 0.274414 Below is what your own program says. 4 6 100 is only slightly different, but that is certainly related to the incaccuracies of the Monte Carlo method. Result Evaluator. Version 0.8 by Jean-Peter Fendrich; peter@fendrich.net Enter 'Help' for more information Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 0 10 games. Result: 4.0-6.0 Some different values of Pw and Pd: Pw Pd Trin cumTrin ------ ------- ----------- --------- 0.33 0.33 0.00355636844 0.05450558 0.40 0.20 0.022020096 0.122454 0.49 0.01 0.189157533 0.7482712 0.37 0.26 0.0100980272 0.07425042 0.33 0.35 0.00276091416 0.05424455 0.01 0.99 2.05078125e-021 0.9980402 0.80 0.10 8.6016e-005 0.6260984 ............................................................................ Probability for A better than B is: 0.2745533 Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 1 11 games. Result: 4.5-6.5 Some different values of Pw and Pd: Pw Pd Trin cumTrin ------ ------- ----------- --------- 0.33 0.33 0.00118545615 0.03502741 0.40 0.20 0.0044040192 0.0886891 0.49 0.01 0.00189157533 0.6468857 0.37 0.26 0.00262548707 0.05006582 0.33 0.35 0.000966319957 0.03491507 0.01 0.99 2.03027344e-021 0.9975906 0.80 0.10 8.6016e-006 0.5771945 ............................................................................ Probability for A better than B is: 0.2747703 Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 10 20 games. Result: 9.0-11.0 Some different values of Pw and Pd: Pw Pd Trin cumTrin ------ ------- ----------- --------- 0.33 0.33 9.56946654e-008 0.0008574022 0.40 0.20 3.58271855e-009 0.01094223 0.49 0.01 3.00550302e-021 0.6054174 0.37 0.26 2.26497568e-008 0.002691502 0.33 0.35 1.21011565e-007 0.0008517853 0.01 0.99 2.94689602e-021 0.9916248 0.80 0.10 1.36669867e-014 0.2530475 ............................................................................ Probability for A better than B is: 0.274245 Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 100 110 games. Result: 54.0-56.0 Some different values of Pw and Pd: Pw Pd Trin cumTrin ------ ------- ----------- --------- 0.33 0.33 2.33563783e-045 1.125915e-019 0.40 0.20 9.44803171e-067 1.700053e-011 0.49 0.01 6.40245019e-196 0.1909135 0.37 0.26 1.07422165e-055 3.536888e-015 0.33 0.35 2.38440436e-043 2.734289e-019 0.01 0.99 2.54074667e-016 0.8122032 0.80 0.10 2.91139955e-099 2.06995e-005 ............................................................................ Probability for A better than B is: 0.2773552 Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. Q Result Evaluator ended
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