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Subject: Re: Proving something is better

Author: Rémi Coulom

Date: 04:48:37 12/22/02

Go up one level in this thread


This is what my program says:

number of wins   n1 = 4
number of losses n0 = 6
P(p1>p0) = 0.274414

Below is what your own program says. 4 6 100 is only slightly different, but
that is certainly related to the incaccuracies of the Monte Carlo method.

Result Evaluator. Version 0.8
by Jean-Peter Fendrich; peter@fendrich.net
Enter 'Help' for more information


Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 0
10 games. Result: 4.0-6.0
Some different values of Pw and Pd:
Pw      Pd      Trin            cumTrin
------  ------- -----------     ---------
0.33    0.33    0.00355636844   0.05450558
0.40    0.20    0.022020096     0.122454
0.49    0.01    0.189157533     0.7482712
0.37    0.26    0.0100980272    0.07425042
0.33    0.35    0.00276091416   0.05424455
0.01    0.99    2.05078125e-021 0.9980402
0.80    0.10    8.6016e-005     0.6260984
............................................................................
Probability for A better than B is: 0.2745533

Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 1
11 games. Result: 4.5-6.5
Some different values of Pw and Pd:
Pw      Pd      Trin            cumTrin
------  ------- -----------     ---------
0.33    0.33    0.00118545615   0.03502741
0.40    0.20    0.0044040192    0.0886891
0.49    0.01    0.00189157533   0.6468857
0.37    0.26    0.00262548707   0.05006582
0.33    0.35    0.000966319957  0.03491507
0.01    0.99    2.03027344e-021 0.9975906
0.80    0.10    8.6016e-006     0.5771945
............................................................................
Probability for A better than B is: 0.2747703

Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 10
20 games. Result: 9.0-11.0
Some different values of Pw and Pd:
Pw      Pd      Trin            cumTrin
------  ------- -----------     ---------
0.33    0.33    9.56946654e-008 0.0008574022
0.40    0.20    3.58271855e-009 0.01094223
0.49    0.01    3.00550302e-021 0.6054174
0.37    0.26    2.26497568e-008 0.002691502
0.33    0.35    1.21011565e-007 0.0008517853
0.01    0.99    2.94689602e-021 0.9916248
0.80    0.10    1.36669867e-014 0.2530475
............................................................................
Probability for A better than B is: 0.274245

Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. 4 6 100
110 games. Result: 54.0-56.0
Some different values of Pw and Pd:
Pw      Pd      Trin            cumTrin
------  ------- -----------     ---------
0.33    0.33    2.33563783e-045 1.125915e-019
0.40    0.20    9.44803171e-067 1.700053e-011
0.49    0.01    6.40245019e-196 0.1909135
0.37    0.26    1.07422165e-055 3.536888e-015
0.33    0.35    2.38440436e-043 2.734289e-019
0.01    0.99    2.54074667e-016 0.8122032
0.80    0.10    2.91139955e-099 2.06995e-005
............................................................................
Probability for A better than B is: 0.2773552

Enter a match result in the form Wins Losses Draws or Q for quit. Q
Result Evaluator ended



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