Author: Russell Reagan
Date: 06:08:47 01/09/03
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On January 08, 2003 at 07:46:08, Drexel,Michael wrote: >I knew that. doesnt matter at all. this is not a serious calculation because >Moores law is not realistic (physical reasons). Why are you so pessimistic? Moores law may not hold true FOR THE CURRENT TECHNOLOGY, but that is awfully stubborn to think that in this day and age that no new technology is going to be born within the next 10,000 years. So while Moores law may not hold true for current technology because of physical limitations, you can't say it won't hold true. Everything you have said regarding this gives me the impression you don't think a single technological innovation will happen in the next 10,000 years, and what we have now is it, forever. You deem things impossible based upon the limitations of only what you can see. The problem is you don't know what you can't see, and you can't understand that for some reason so you discard it and think you've got a good grip on things. And yes I know what 10^43 means. Do you? Because I don't think you do. Think about how many of those positions will be a rout. Why bother searching a position and it's huge subtree when one side is up by 6 queens? A good chess program would prune these things away. That number is not the same number of nodes that would need to be crunched to find a mate. So go ahead throwing that number around all you want. It isn't vital for solving chess. Even if you must hold on to that number, it will only take 60-70 years of it holding for 10^43 positions to be searchable. Maybe current technology won't hold for that long, but if you think there won't be many more breakthroughs and new technology created in the future, then I have a very nice bridge for sale that you might be interested in... If we have three "breakthroughs" and we get another 20 year period of Moore's law, guess what, we're there. Or how about just two 30 year periods? Maybe it will only take one. Who knows? Not you.
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