Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 17:16:17 01/16/03
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On January 16, 2003 at 19:55:39, Terry McCracken wrote: >On January 16, 2003 at 19:43:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On January 16, 2003 at 19:40:59, Terry McCracken wrote: >> >>>On January 16, 2003 at 16:29:48, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>> >>>>On January 16, 2003 at 16:16:02, david wight wrote: >>>> >>>>>please help with your thoughts. >>>> >>>> >>>>It is far enough off that it is impossible to predict. Who knows what programs >>>>will be around by that time? >>> >>>In 2010 no human will be stronger than the strongest programme on the fastest >>>hardware. >>> >>>That's a _safe_ prediction! >>> >>>Terry >> >> >>In _eight_ years? >> >>The question is "what is the fastest hardware?" >> >>If you mean reasonable in terms of price, I don't think there is a chance >>this will happen. If you mean the fastest thing somebody can use, there is >>maybe a 10% chance this will be true... > > >10% Bob, in the next 7 years? C'mon, we're not too far off now!;-) > >Fastest home computer will be close if not equal to a 2800+ Super Grandmaster. >The fastest hardware by that time (a supercomputer), if used for chess will >exceed 3000+ rating points against humans at any T/C. > >Terry Sorry but I remain unconvinced. They will be very strong. But they are very strong today. But "unbeatable by any human"? Not in 8 more years, IMHO. I heard this very same statement in 1995. In 2003 it is _still_ 8 years off. I'll bet that in 2010 that 2018 will be the projection. By the way, in 1970, 1978 was the projected fall of humans. :) I was there.
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