Author: stuart taylor
Date: 19:04:23 01/16/03
Go up one level in this thread
On January 16, 2003 at 20:16:17, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On January 16, 2003 at 19:55:39, Terry McCracken wrote: > >>On January 16, 2003 at 19:43:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On January 16, 2003 at 19:40:59, Terry McCracken wrote: >>> >>>>On January 16, 2003 at 16:29:48, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>> >>>>>On January 16, 2003 at 16:16:02, david wight wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>please help with your thoughts. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>It is far enough off that it is impossible to predict. Who knows what programs >>>>>will be around by that time? >>>> >>>>In 2010 no human will be stronger than the strongest programme on the fastest >>>>hardware. >>>> >>>>That's a _safe_ prediction! >>>> >>>>Terry >>> >>> >>>In _eight_ years? >>> >>>The question is "what is the fastest hardware?" >>> >>>If you mean reasonable in terms of price, I don't think there is a chance >>>this will happen. If you mean the fastest thing somebody can use, there is >>>maybe a 10% chance this will be true... >> >> >>10% Bob, in the next 7 years? C'mon, we're not too far off now!;-) >> >>Fastest home computer will be close if not equal to a 2800+ Super Grandmaster. >>The fastest hardware by that time (a supercomputer), if used for chess will >>exceed 3000+ rating points against humans at any T/C. >> >>Terry > >Sorry but I remain unconvinced. They will be very strong. But they are very >strong today. But "unbeatable by any human"? Not in 8 more years, IMHO. I >heard this very same statement in 1995. In 2003 it is _still_ 8 years off. >I'll bet that in 2010 that 2018 will be the projection. > >By the way, in 1970, 1978 was the projected fall of humans. :) > >I was there. That's interesting. Humanistic endeavours are certainly of much less value as time goes on. Chess is not like it was. Nor is classical music, nor are very many things. S.Taylor
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