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Subject: Re: There Is A 1/5 Chance That DJ 2003 Is As Good As DB '97. Amir Was Wrong!

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 02:18:56 02/06/03

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On February 06, 2003 at 04:59:26, Graham Laight wrote:

>I have to admit, I tended towards the neutral in terms of how good PCs were
>against DB. I had a feeling that Bob might be correct - but the PC apologists,
>led by Amir, put what looked like a an overwhelming amount of evidence into the
>debate.
>
>Now, the truth is on the table for all to see.
>
>For all those years, Amir was arguing that DB was no better than PCs, and Bob
>Hyatt argued the reverse position.
>
>Of the 5 games played so far, DJ has won one. Therefore, there is a 1 in 5
>chance that DJ will win tomorrow. If DJ does win, it will merely achieve the
>same result that DB achieved 6 years ago. There is a 4 in 5 probability that it
>won't - and that after 6 years of catching up time, DJ will actually achieve a
>WORSE result than DB achieved.
>
>Remember - if IBM had continued to develop DB, then, under Moore's law, it would
>be doing a continuous 2 billion nodes per second today (peaking at close to 10
>billion nodes per second).
>
>The argument is now closed. Amir has been proven wrong.
>
>I hope Amir is going to do the gentlemanly thing and apologise for all the years
>he has been misleading us in an insistant and indignant manner.
>
>-g

I do not see how you can prove that Amir was wrong if Junior does not win.
There are simple not enough games to prove something based only on the results.

Your 1/5 chance is also not convincing because kasparov play the last game with
black.

Junior drew all the games with White so you can say that there is 100% chance
that it is going to be a draw by this wrong logic.

Uri



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