Author: Graham Laight
Date: 02:44:14 02/06/03
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On February 06, 2003 at 05:18:56, Uri Blass wrote: >On February 06, 2003 at 04:59:26, Graham Laight wrote: > >>I have to admit, I tended towards the neutral in terms of how good PCs were >>against DB. I had a feeling that Bob might be correct - but the PC apologists, >>led by Amir, put what looked like a an overwhelming amount of evidence into the >>debate. >> >>Now, the truth is on the table for all to see. >> >>For all those years, Amir was arguing that DB was no better than PCs, and Bob >>Hyatt argued the reverse position. >> >>Of the 5 games played so far, DJ has won one. Therefore, there is a 1 in 5 >>chance that DJ will win tomorrow. If DJ does win, it will merely achieve the >>same result that DB achieved 6 years ago. There is a 4 in 5 probability that it >>won't - and that after 6 years of catching up time, DJ will actually achieve a >>WORSE result than DB achieved. >> >>Remember - if IBM had continued to develop DB, then, under Moore's law, it would >>be doing a continuous 2 billion nodes per second today (peaking at close to 10 >>billion nodes per second). >> >>The argument is now closed. Amir has been proven wrong. >> >>I hope Amir is going to do the gentlemanly thing and apologise for all the years >>he has been misleading us in an insistant and indignant manner. >> >>-g > >I do not see how you can prove that Amir was wrong if Junior does not win. >There are simple not enough games to prove something based only on the results. You may be correct - but if you are, then clearly Amir was wrong to do so much self-righteous indignant waffling about DB's relative performance in 1997. >Your 1/5 chance is also not convincing because kasparov play the last game with >black. > >Junior drew all the games with White so you can say that there is 100% chance >that it is going to be a draw by this wrong logic. Whichever way you slice the probability calculation, DB has a probability of winning tomorrow of less than 50% - which means that DJ will probably do worse in the match than DB did six long years ago. -g >Uri
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